Global| Jan 08 2007U.S. Factory Sector Inventory Gain Dropped Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Factory inventories increased just 0.2% in November after a downwardly revised 0.3% October increase. These gains were down from the 0.7% average during the prior six months. Petroleum refineries' inventories did rise 0.7% but that [...]
Factory inventories increased just 0.2% in November after a downwardly revised 0.3% October increase. These gains were down from the 0.7% average during the prior six months.
Petroleum refineries' inventories did rise 0.7% but that uptick followed sharp 6.3% and 4.3% declines during the prior two months due to lower oil prices. The new development in November was that less petroleum, factory inventories grew just 0.2% (7.0% y/y), down sharply from the 0.7% average of the prior six months.
Machinery inventories fell 0.5% (+6.2% y/y) and primary metal inventories eased 0.3% (+18.9% y/y). Inventories of computers & electronic products rose 0.8% (7.2% y/y) while inventories of electrical equipment rose 0.6% (11.0% y/y) and the 3-month change fell to only 1.2% (AR). Furniture inventories rose 1.0% and in a hint that the accumulation was involuntary the 3-month change rose to 10.3%, the highest in a year.
Total factory orders recovered 0.9% after the hard October plunge. Durable goods orders jumped 1.6% which was revised down slightly from the advance report. Factory orders less transportation fell 0.5% (+0.6% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline. Much of the recently slower growth in this measure reflects petroleum where orders (which equal shipments), but non-transportation orders less oil fell 0.9% (+1.4% y/y) in November for the fourth consecutive monthly decline.
Factory shipments rose 0.1% for the second month but factory shipments less transportation & petroleum slipped 0.2% (+1.4% y/y).
| Factory Survey (NAICS) | November | October | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | 0.2% | 0.3% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 6.9% | -7.4% |
| New Orders | 0.9% | -4.5% | -0.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 0.9% |
| Shipments | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 0.2% |
| Unfilled Orders | 1.7% | 1.4% | 20.4% | 16.3% | 4.5% | -1.0% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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