Global| Apr 04 2016U.S. Factory Sector Activity Deteriorates
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders in the manufacturing sector declined 1.7% during February (+0.1% y/y) and reversed the prior month's 1.2% increase. The decline reflected a little-revised 3.0% drop in durable goods orders. These orders were pulled lower by [...]
New orders in the manufacturing sector declined 1.7% during February (+0.1% y/y) and reversed the prior month's 1.2% increase. The decline reflected a little-revised 3.0% drop in durable goods orders. These orders were pulled lower by a 6.2% decline in transportation sector bookings as well a 3.6% drop in orders for electrical equipment. Nondurable goods orders (which equal shipments), eased 0.4% (-7.4% y/y), the eight decline in as many months. A 2.1% decline in orders to petroleum refineries led the decline as prices fell. Textile product orders also were off 1.1% (+5.3% y/y) while basic chemical orders remained little changed (+4.4% y/y). Shipments of durable goods declined 1.0% as machinery orders were off 3.1% (-0.6% y/y), but orders for computers & electronic products increased 1.1% (8.4% y/y).
Unfilled orders in the factory sector eased 0.3% (-1.6% y/y) after a 0.1% up tick. Unfilled orders of transportation equipment fell 0.6% (-1.7% y/y). Excluding the transportation sector, order backlogs gained 0.2% (-1.3% y/y) led by a 1.3% jump (-0.2% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components.
Inventories in the factory sector fell 0.4% (-2.5% y/y). Nondurable goods inventories declined 0.5% (-3.8% y/y), led lower by a 5.5% decline (-28.6% y/y) in the value of petroleum inventories. The value of basic chemical inventories was little-changed (-0.8% y/y) and apparel inventories increased 0.6% (10.8% y/y). Durable goods inventories eased -0.3% (-1.7% y/y), and have been falling steadily for nearly a year.
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is available in AS1REPNA.
| Factory Sector- NAICS Classification (%) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | -1.7 | 1.2 | -2.9 | 0.1 | -6.6 | 3.5 | 2.0 |
| Shipments | -0.7 | -0.2 | -1.4 | -0.1 | -4.3 | 2.6 | 1.9 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.5 | -1.6 | -1.9 | 11.5 | 6.5 |
| Inventories | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -2.5 | -1.9 | 2.4 | 1.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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