Global| Feb 04 2013U.S. Factory Orders Surge Led By Durables
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Orders to all manufacturers jumped 1.8% (0.7% y/y) to close out the year, following a 0.3% November slip. The rise roughly matched expectations. For all of 2012, an easing of strength in the factory sector was evidenced by the modest [...]
Orders to all manufacturers jumped 1.8% (0.7% y/y) to close out the year, following a 0.3% November slip. The rise roughly matched expectations. For all of 2012, an easing of strength in the factory sector was evidenced by the modest 2.7% rise in orders following double-digit gains gain during the prior two years. A 4.3% (-0.2% y/y) surge in December durable goods orders, little-revised from the advance report, accounted for the strength in overall orders in December. It was powered by higher defense orders. Orders for nondurable goods, which equal shipments, fell 0.3% (+1.6% y/y) after a 1.0% November decline. A nearly one-quarter drop (-11.3% y/y) in tobacco shipments led the weakness. That was followed by a 1.5% drop (-0.4% y/y) in shipments of apparel and a 1.0% decline in printing (-1.5% y/y). Shipments from petroleum refineries fell 0.6% (+4.6% y/y) after a 5.1% November drop as prices moved lower.
Inventories in the factory sector rose 0.1% (2.4% y/y), the gain held back by a 1.2% drop (-5.1% y/y) in petroleum refineries. Elsewhere, apparel inventories rose 1.2% (11.2% y/y) and chemical inventories increased 0.8% (-2.9% y/y). In the durable goods sector, inventories were roughly unchanged (4.6% y/y). A 1.1% rise (-0.7% y/y) in primary metals was offset by a 0.5% decline (+7.2% y/y) in machinery inventories. Order backlogs rose 0.8% (2.3% y/y) with a jump in orders and a moderate advance in shipments.
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in AS1REPNA.
| Factory Sector- NAICS Classification | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 1.8 | -0.3 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 11.8 | 18.0 |
| Shipments | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 11.8 | 11.2 |
| Inventories | 0.1 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 9.4 | 8.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 10.3 | 9.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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