Global| Jun 02 2011U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Backpedal
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Manufacturing orders pulled back 1.2% during April after a 3.8% March jump, revised up from 3.0%. Consensus expectations were for a 1.0% decline in total factory orders. For durable goods only, orders fell an unrevised 3.6%. As [...]
Manufacturing orders pulled back 1.2% during April after a 3.8% March jump, revised up from 3.0%. Consensus expectations were for a 1.0% decline in total factory orders. For durable goods only, orders fell an unrevised 3.6%. As indicated last week, much of the decline in durables was due to aircraft. Nondurable goods orders, which equal shipments, rose 0.6% (14.6% y/y). Apparel shipments rose 0.9% (5.3% y/y) but chemical shipments fell 0.3% (+1.0% y/y).
Inventory building continued strong at 1.3% (12.3% y/y), although the figure was biased due to higher oil prices. Durable inventories jumped 0.9% (12.7% y/y) but nondurables surged 1.9% due to the 6.2% jump (35.6% y/y) in petroleum. Growth in unfilled orders moderated to 0.3% for the month. The 5.4% y/y gain masks, however, the strength of a 12.6% rise in backlogs less the transportation sector. It was led by a 31.2% y/y gain in backlogs of machinery orders and a 22.3% gain in electrical equipment, appliances & components.
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
Assessing Potential Financial Imbalances in an Era of Accommodative Monetary Policy is yesterday's speech by Fed Vice Chair Janet L. Yellen and it can be found here.
| Factory Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orders | -1.2 | 3.8 | -0.3 | 10.5 | 12.9 | -17.7 | 0.5 |
| Shipments | -0.2 | 3.1 | 0.2 | 10.9 | 8.6 | -18.5 | 2.3 |
| Inventories | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 12.3 | 8.7 | -6.8 | -2.1 |
| Backlogs | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 5.4 | 3.9 | -15.2 | 4.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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