Global| Aug 31 2011U.S. Factory Orders Rebound
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Manufacturing orders jumped 2.4% during July after a revised 0.4% June slip. Consensus expectations were for a 1.8% gain. For durable goods only orders rose 4.1% which roughly equaled the gain in the advance report. Nondurable goods [...]
Manufacturing orders jumped 2.4% during July after a revised 0.4% June slip. Consensus expectations were for a 1.8% gain. For durable goods only orders rose 4.1% which roughly equaled the gain in the advance report. Nondurable goods orders, which equal shipments, rose 1.0% (17.7% y/y), paced by a 4.0% rise (48.6% y/y in shipments from oil refineries with higher prices. Shipments of food products rose 0.8% (11.8% y/y) and paper products ticked up 0.3% (-0.8% y/y). Apparel shipments fell 0.8% (+3.6% y/y).
Inventories in the factory sector rose 0.5% (12.8% y/y) during July after an upwardly revised 0.4% June gain. Durable goods inventories rose 0.9% (12.7% y/y) with the strength in transportation, metals and machinery. Nondurables inventories slipped 0.1% (+13.0% y/y) due to a 1.8% drop (+39.5% y/y) in oil refineries. Apparel inventories jumped 2.4% (20.1% y/y) and basic chemicals inched up 0.2% (8.6% y/y).
Growth in unfilled orders rebounded 0.8%. The modest 7.1% y/y gain still masks, however, the strength of a 13.6% rise in backlogs less the transportation sector. It was led by a one-third rise in backlogs of machinery and a 19.8% gain in electrical equipment, appliances & components. Transportation industry backlogs rose 0.7% and just 2.8% y/y.
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in AS1REPNA.
Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is available here.
| Factory Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Jul | Jun | May | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orders | 2.4 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 13.9 | 12.9 | -17.7 | 0.5 |
| Shipments | 1.6 | 0.6 | -0.0 | 12.6 | 8.6 | -18.5 | 2.3 |
| Inventories | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 12.8 | 8.7 | -6.8 | -2.1 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 7.1 | 3.9 | -15.2 | 4.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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