Global| Nov 03 2011U.S. Factory Orders Improve Modestly But Backlogs Are Strong
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Manufacturing orders rose 0.3% during September following a 0.1% August uptick, revised from the 0.2% slip reported last month. A 0.2% September dip had been expected. For durable goods only, orders fell 0.6%, roughly unchanged from [...]
Manufacturing orders rose 0.3% during September following a 0.1% August uptick, revised from the 0.2% slip reported last month. A 0.2% September dip had been expected. For durable goods only, orders fell 0.6%, roughly unchanged from the advance report of a 0.8% decline. Nondurable goods orders, which equal shipments, jumped 1.0% (15.2% y/y). The gain was powered by a 4.2% rise (42.5% y/y) in petroleum shipments, though prices were flat m/m. Offsetting that rise was a 0.6% decline (-2.6% y/y) in paper products and a 0.2% slip (+6.7% y/y) in chemicals.
Unfilled orders increased 0.9% for the third straight month. It was led by a one-third rise in backlogs of machinery and an 18.0% gain in electrical equipment, appliances & components. Transportation industry backlogs rose 0.8% and 4.5% y/y.
Inventories in the factory sector inched up 0.1% (11.8% y/y) during September following a little-revised 0.3% August gain. Durable goods inventories ticked up 0.1% (12.1% y/y). Nondurables inventories also ticked up 0.1% (11.2% y/y) as oil refineries rose 0.6% (30.0% y/y. Apparel inventories rose another 0.8% (16.8% y/y) and basic chemicals rose 0.4% (9.7% y/y). Food products fell 1.0% (+5.5% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in AS1REPNA.
| Factory Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orders | 0.3 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | -21.7 | 0.5 |
| Shipments | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 11.6 | 8.6 | -18.5 | 2.3 |
| Inventories | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 11.8 | 8.7 | -6.8 | -2.1 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 7.7 | 3.9 | -15.2 | 4.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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