Global| Mar 05 2012U.S. Factory Orders Fall While Inventories Build
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Orders in the manufacturing sector fell 1.0% (+7.4% y/y) during January and reversed much of a little-revised 1.4% December jump. The decline owed to a 3.7% fall in orders for durable goods. That was little-revised from the advance [...]
Orders in the manufacturing sector fell 1.0% (+7.4% y/y) during January and reversed much of a little-revised 1.4% December jump. The decline owed to a 3.7% fall in orders for durable goods. That was little-revised from the advance report of a 4.0% drop indicated last week. The shortfall reflected much-lower orders for aircraft. Orders for nondurable goods offset some of that decline with a 1.3% rise (6.5% y/y). That reflected a 3.3% jump in oil refinery shipments (8.0% y/y), which for nondurables equal orders. Excluding oil shipments rose 0.6% (5.9% y/y).
Unfilled orders rose 0.6% (9.5% y/y) led by a 1.8% rise (14.8% y/y) in nondefense aircraft. Less transportation altogether, backlogs rose 0.2% (9.5% y/y) paced by a 0.6% rise (24.4% y/y) in machinery and a 0.8% gain (17.3% y/y) in electrical equipment. Order backlogs of furniture rose just 1.9% y/y while computers were unchanged. Shipments from the manufacturing sector rose 0.9% (7.6% y/y).
Inventories in the factory sector increased another 0.6% (8.8% y/y) during January as durable goods inventories rose 0.6% (10.4% y/y). Electrical equipment inventories swelled by 2.9% (6.3% y/y) while machinery inventories rose 1.5% (14.1% y/y). Nondurables inventories rose 0.6% (6.4% y/y) reflecting a 2.2% (16.3% y/y) jump in oil. Apparel inventories also were strong and rose 1.6% (18.1% y/y) but basic chemicals ticked up just 0.1% (3.6% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in AS1REPNA.
| Factory Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orders | -1.0 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 7.4 | 12.2 | 12.9 | -21.7 |
| Shipments | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 8.6 | -18.5 |
| Inventories | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 8.7 | -6.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 3.9 | -15.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
