Global| Aug 04 2011U.S. Factory Orders Fall And Inventory Gain Slows
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Reported yesterday, manufacturing orders fell 0.8% during June after a little-revised 0.6% May increase. Consensus expectations were for a 0.7% decline. For durable goods only, orders fell 1.9% which was revised up slightly from the [...]
Reported yesterday, manufacturing orders fell 0.8% during June after a little-revised 0.6% May increase. Consensus expectations were for a 0.7% decline. For durable goods only, orders fell 1.9% which was revised up slightly from the 2.1% decline in the advance report. Nondurable goods orders, which equal shipments, were unchanged (+16.2% y/y). Apparel shipments jumped 2.3% (4.7% y/y) but that was offset by a 2.2% decline (+43.2% y/y) in shipments from oil refineries. Shipments of paper products rose 0.2% (1.0% y/y) and food product shipments also increased a scant 0.1% (11.7% y/y).
Inventories in the factory sector rose 0.2% (12.8% y/y) during June, the slowest increase since May of last year. The rise was held back as lower prices caused a 1.8% decline (+46.0% y/y) in oil refineries. That led a 0.2% slip in the nondurable total. Elsewhere, inventories were depressed. Apparel inventories fell 0.9% (+19.0% y/y) and basic chemicals ticked up just 0.1% (8.0% y/y). Durable inventories rose 0.5% (12.3% y/y).
Growth in unfilled orders of 0.3% also was the slowest this year. The modest 6.6% y/y gain still masks, however, the strength of a 13.4% rise in backlogs less the transportation sector. It was led by a one-third gain in backlogs of machinery and a 19.8% gain in electrical equipment, appliances & components. Transportation industry backlogs ticked down 0.1% and rose just 2.0% y/y.
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is available here.
| Factory Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Jun | May | Apr | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orders | -0.8 | 0.6 | -0.9 | 13.0 | 12.9 | -17.7 | 0.5 |
| Shipments | 0.2 | -0.0 | -0.4 | 12.8 | 8.6 | -18.5 | 2.3 |
| Inventories | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | -6.8 | -2.1 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | -15.2 | 4.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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