Global| Feb 04 2014U.S. Factory Orders Decline While Inventories Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Orders to all manufacturers roughly matched expectations and fell 1.5% (+0.8% y/y) during December. For all of last year new orders rose 2.7% and roughly equaled the 2012 increase. Last month's decline reflected a little-revised 4.2% [...]
Orders to all manufacturers roughly matched expectations and fell 1.5% (+0.8% y/y) during December. For all of last year new orders rose 2.7% and roughly equaled the 2012 increase. Last month's decline reflected a little-revised 4.2% drop (+0.4% y/y) in durable goods orders, led lower by aircraft bookings. Orders for nondurable goods (which equal shipments) increased 1.1% (1.2% y/y) after a 0.4% November slip. Shipments from petroleum refineries jumped 2.9% (0.5% y/y) and that was accompanied by a 2.3% rebound (6.8% y/y) in shipments from textile mills. Apparel shipments recovered 1.1% (6.0% y/y), basic chemical shipments increased 0.8% (0.9% y/y) and paper product shipments inched 0.4% higher (-0.9% y/y).
Inventories in the factory sector increased 0.5% (2.3% y/y), the strongest monthly rise since January. For all of last year inventories rose a steady 2.3%. Apparel inventories jumped 2.6% (17.5% y/y) but chemical inventories slipped 0.3% (+1.1% y/y), down for the eighth straight month. Petroleum inventories slipped 0.1% (-1.4% y/y) while paper product inventories ticked up 0.1% (-0.7% y/y). In the durable goods sector, inventories gained 0.8% (3.7% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in AS1REPNA.
| Factory Sector- NAICS Classification | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | -1.5 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 12.9 |
| Shipments | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 12.1 |
| Inventories | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 10.2 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 10.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
