Global| Feb 05 2008U.S. Factory Numbers Dominated by Aircraft Industry
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Factory inventories rose 0.8% during December. That gain followed a 0.7% increase during November and pulled the three month increase in inventories to 1.6%, up from a low of 0.2% in August. Nevertheless the 3.6% rise in inventories [...]
Factory inventories rose 0.8% during December. That gain followed a 0.7% increase during November and pulled the three month increase in inventories to 1.6%, up from a low of 0.2% in August. Nevertheless the 3.6% rise in inventories last year was well below the 6.4% increase during 2006.
Excluding the volatile transportation sector, inventories rose 0.4% in December and the three month average rate of accumulation of 0.4% is up from 0.1% decumulation in August. The civilian aircraft industry very much dominated the factory sector figures last year with a 7.1% gain in inventories over the year's final three months and a 23.2% gain y/y.
A 2.3% rise in total factory orders during December also was dominated by an 11.7% (28.4% y/y) surge in orders for civilian aircraft. It followed a 28.6% November jump. Overall, a 5.0% rise in orders for durable goods was reduced only slightly from the advance report of a 5.2% increase.
The aircraft industry just couldn't keep shipments up with the inflow of new orders. Unfilled orders of civilian aircraft & parts surged 4.2% in December (42.7% y/y) and the average change during the final three months of 2007 was 10.1%. Excluding the transportation sector altogether unfilled orders rose 1.3% in December and the three month average growth rate was a still firm 2.5%. That rate of increase has been fairly steady of late.
Factory shipments fell 0.3% in December after gains of 1.3% and 1.2% during the prior two months. Excluding transportation shipments fell 0.1% after gains of 1.6% and 1.4%.
Publishing FOMC Economic Forecasts from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| Factory Survey (NAICS, %) | December | November | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | 0.8 | 0.7 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 8.9 |
| New Orders | 2.3 | 1.7 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 5.1 | 11.6 |
| Excluding Transportation | 0.7 | 1.5 | 5.9 | 1.2 | 5.4 | 11.5 |
| Shipments | -0.3 | 1.3 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 4.3 | 10.3 |
| Unfilled Orders | 2.5 | 1.2 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 20.0 | 15.0 |
| Excluding Transportation | 1.3 | 0.5 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 14.1 | 8.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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