Global| Feb 05 2007U.S. Factory Inventory Accumulation Slowed Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Factory inventories inched up just 0.1% during December after a slowed 0.2% November gain. The 0.6% increase in factory inventories during 4Q06 was the slowest since 3Q05. Primary metals inventories actually fell during the last two [...]
Factory inventories inched up just 0.1% during December after a slowed 0.2% November gain. The 0.6% increase in factory inventories during 4Q06 was the slowest since 3Q05.
Primary metals inventories actually fell during the last two months (+17.9% y/y). Automobile inventories also plummeted 11.8% (+6.3% y/y) and inventories of furniture fell 1.5% (+4.3% y/y). These declines were offset by higher electrical equipment inventories (11.3% y/y), higher inventories of computers (+8.4% y/y) and higher machinery inventories (8.7% y/y).
Total factory orders rose a firm 2.4% following a downwardly revised 1.2% November increase. Durable goods orders surged 2.9% which was little revised from the advance report of a 3.1% pop. Factory orders less transportation surged 2.2% (2.4% y/y) though nondurable are even y/y reflecting lower oil prices but also a decline in textiles.
Factory shipments surged 1.4% reflecting a 1.0% jump in durables which was broad based. Factory shipments less transportation jumped 1.0% (1.0% y/y).
Unfilled orders surged 2.1% due to the another jump in civilian aircraft (39.5% y/y). Less the transportation sector altogether backlogs rose 1.3% (13.8% y/y).
| Factory Survey (NAICS) | December | November | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | 0.1% | 0.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 6.9% |
| New Orders | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 7.5% |
| Shipments | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% |
| Unfilled Orders | 2.1% | 1.8% | 20.4% | 20.4% | 16.3% | 4.5% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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