Global| Sep 03 2008U.S. Factory Inventories Rose Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Factory inventories rose 0.5% during July, lifted by a 3.5% surge in inventories of nondefense aircraft & parts. Less the transportation sector altogether the value of inventories rose 0.4%. At petroleum refineries, inventories fell [...]
Factory inventories rose 0.5% during July, lifted by a 3.5% surge in inventories of nondefense aircraft & parts. Less the transportation sector altogether the value of inventories rose 0.4%.
At petroleum refineries, inventories fell 1.9% (+37.1% y/y) after a revised 10.0% jump during June. The value still was up by more than one-half since December as prices have surged. Less petroleum, factory inventories rose 0.7% (5.8% y/y) during July after an upwardly revised 0.6% June increase. Inventories in the machinery sector rose 0.5% (5.8% y/y) while inventories of computers & electronics rose 0.4% (7.2 y/y).
Factory shipments jumped again last month. The 2.1% spike was due to a 3.8% (-10.5% y/y) surge in shipments of transportation equipment and a 2.0% (13.3% y/y) rise in apparel shipments.
Total factory orders surged 1.3% during July after the upwardly revised 2.1% June jump. Expectations had been for a 1.0% rise. The strength reflected stronger petroleum orders (which equal shipments). They rose 0.6% (48.8% y/y). Less petroleum, orders rose 1.4% (0.3% y/y). Durable orders repeated their June strength and rose 1.3% which was the same as reported in the advance report.
Overall unfilled orders rose 0.7%, a rate of increase that was down from the 1.0% June rise. Order backlogs for electronic computers fell slightly but order backlogs of machinery surged (23.2% y/y).
| Factory Survey (NAICS, %) | July | June | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | 0.5 | 1.2 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 8.9 |
| Excluding Transportation | 0.4 | 1.3 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 7.9 | 8.1 |
| New Orders | 1.3 | 2.1 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 6.2 | 11.9 |
| Excluding Transportation | 1.0 | 2.7 | 10.6 | 1.2 | 7.4 | 11.7 |
| Shipments | 2.1 | 1.9 | 7.8 | 1.2 | 5.9 | 10.4 |
| Excluding Transportation | 1.8 | 1.9 | 10.8 | 1.5 | 6.7 | 11.4 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.7 | 1.0 | 13.7 | 17.1 | 15.3 | 15.4 |
| Excluding Transportation | 1.0 | 1.4 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 16.0 | 9.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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