Global| Jan 04 2006U.S. Factory Inventories and Backlogs Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
November factory inventories rose 0.2% following an unrevised 0.6% gain in October. Less a 3.2% (+14.4% y/y) decline in petroleum, factory inventories rose 0.3% (3.3% y/y) and that y/y gain is nearly one third the rate of accumulation [...]
November factory inventories rose 0.2% following an unrevised 0.6% gain in October. Less a 3.2% (+14.4% y/y) decline in petroleum, factory inventories rose 0.3% (3.3% y/y) and that y/y gain is nearly one third the rate of accumulation early in 2005.
The increase in November inventories was paced by a 1.4% (1.3% y/y) gain in computers & electronic products. Machinery inventories also rose a strong 0.5% (5.9% y/y).
Factory shipments rose a modest 0.2%, held back by a 5.7% drop in petroleum. Total factory orders surged 2.5% and the advance report of a 4.4% jump in durables goods orders was unrevised.
A 10.6% m/m surge (46.9% y/y) in unfilled orders for nondefense aircraft orders caused the total of unfilled orders to jump 1.6%. Less the transportation sector backlogs continued strong and rose 0.6% (9.6% y/y) while the ratio of total unfilled orders to shipments rose further to the highest level since 2002.
| Factory Survey (NAICS) | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | 0.2% | 0.6% | 3.8% | 7.7% | -1.1% | -5.4% |
| New Orders | 2.5% | 1.7% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 3.5% | -2.5% |
| Shipments | 0.2% | 0.7% | 5.7% | 9.5% | 1.5% | -2.5% |
| Unfilled Orders | 3.0% | 1.4% | 13.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% | -8.5% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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