Global| Sep 24 2009U.S. Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall Along With Prices
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Realtors reported that August sales of existing homes unexpectedly fell following four consecutive months of increase. The 2.7% m/m decline to 5.100M units (SAAR) nevertheless left sales still near the [...]
The National Association of Realtors reported that August sales of existing homes unexpectedly fell following four consecutive months of increase. The 2.7% m/m decline to 5.100M units (SAAR) nevertheless left sales still near the highest level since late-2007. The decline in August sales contrasted with Consensus expectations for a rise to 5.35M. Total sales include sales of condos and co-ops.
Sales of existing single-family homes alone similarly fell 2.8% to 4.480M last month but were up 10.6% from the January low. (These data have a longer history than the total sales series).
Recent sales have been helped by a tax credit for first-time home buyers. The credit of up to $8,000 extends though the end of this year. The full details of the home-buyer tax credit can be found here.
The median price of an existing home fell for the second straight month, to $177,700. Though prices were still lower than the year ago level, they have risen by 7.8% from the January low. The median price for a single-family home was $177,500 (-12.1% y/y). During August, the composite index of home affordability slipped during July and was down 11.4% from the April high.
In a reversal of the recent trend, potential sellers put fewer homes on the market. The number of unsold homes (condos & single-family) for sale fell 10.8% during August to near the lowest level since early-2007. Year-to-year inventories were down 16.4%. At the current sales rate there was an 8.5 months' supply on the market which was the lowest since mid-2007. The figure was down from 9.3 months during July. For single-family homes the inventory fell 9.1% m/m (-16.7% y/y). At the current sales rate there was an 8.2 month's supply of homes on the market, the lowest since 2007.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data is available in the REALTOR database.
Systemic Risk and the Financial Crisis from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Existing Home Sales (Thous, SAAR) | August | July | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 5,100 | 5,240 | 3.4% | 4,893 | 5,674 | 6,516 |
| Northeast | 910 | 930 | 5.8 | 845 | 1,010 | 1,093 |
| Midwest | 1,140 | 1,220 | 0.0 | 1,130 | 1,331 | 1,494 |
| South | 1,890 | 1,950 | 1.6 | 1,860 | 2,243 | 2,577 |
| West | 1,160 | 1,130 | 7.4 | 1,064 | 1,095 | 1,357 |
| Single-Family | 4,480 | 4,610 | 2.5 | 4,341 | 4,960 | 5,712 |
| Median Price, Total, $ | 177,700 | 181,500 | -12.5 | 197,250 | 216,633 | 222,042 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
