Global| Jan 20 2012U.S. Existing Home Sales Surge Again As Prices Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Realtors reported that December sales of existing homes jumped 5.0% to 4.610M (AR, 3.6% y/y) following a downwardly revised 3.3% November gain. The latest was the highest since last January. For all of [...]
The National Association of Realtors reported that December sales of existing homes jumped 5.0% to 4.610M (AR, 3.6% y/y) following a downwardly revised 3.3% November gain. The latest was the highest since last January. For all of 2011, sales rose 2.5% to 4.293M and recouped most of a 3.4% decline in 2010. Sales of existing single-family homes alone rose 4.6% last month to 4.110M, up 4.3% y/y. (These data have a longer history than the total sales series). Sales of condos and co-ops rose 8.7% m/m to .500M (-2.0% y/y).
The months' supply of homes on the market fell sharply to 6.2, the lowest since April, 2006. The months' supply of single-family homes on the market fell to 6.1 and for condos & coops it was a greatly-lessened 7.1 months. The total number of homes on the market fell by nearly one-quarter y/y. Inventories of single-family homes fell 19.7% y/y but multi-family home inventories were off by one-third.
The median price of existing homes rose 2.3% m/m in December to $164,500 (-2.5% y/y). However, November's level was revised down to show no-change. In the Northeast, the median sales price of $231,300 was down 2.7% y/y. In the West, the median price of $205,200 increased 0.3% y/y. In the South, the price of $146,900 was down 1.1% y/y and in the Midwest the price of $129,100 fell 7.9% y/y.
Reported earlier this month, the composite index of home price affordability rose 7.6% y/y in November as mortgage payments as a percent of income were 12.9%, versus the high near 25% in 2006. The average monthly mortgage rate remained at 4.33%.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
2011's Reluctant Recovery: Breaking through in 2012? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is available here.
| Existing Home Sales (Thous, SAAR) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y% | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 4,610 | 4,390 | 4,250 | 3.6 | 4,293 | 4,187 | 4,335 |
| Northeast | 620 | 560 | 510 | 3.3 | 543 | 565 | 583 |
| Midwest | 1,040 | 960 | 920 | 9.5 | 924 | 912 | 983 |
| South | 1,760 | 1,710 | 1,700 | 3.5 | 1,688 | 1,628 | 1,633 |
| West | 1,190 | 1,160 | 1,120 | -0.8 | 1,138 | 1,083 | 1,138 |
| Single-Family Sales | 4,110 | 3,930 | 3,780 | 4.3 | 3,808 | 3,708 | 3,867 |
| Median Price, Total, ($, NSA) | 164,500 | 160,800 | 160,800 | -2.5 | 164,467 | 172,442 | 172,783 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
