Global| Aug 21 2009U.S. Existing Home Sales Rise With Distress Sales & Tax Credit
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes during July jumped for the fourth consecutive month. The 7.2% m/m rise to 5,240 (SAAR) was to the highest level since August of 2007. The increase in July [...]
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes during July jumped for the fourth consecutive month. The 7.2% m/m rise to 5,240 (SAAR) was to the highest level since August of 2007. The increase in July sales beat Consensus expectations for sales of 5.00M homes. Total sales include sales of condos and co-ops.
Sales of existing single-family homes alone increased 5.5% last month and were up 13.8% from the January low. (These data have a longer history than the total sales series).
Recent sales have been helped by a tax credit for first-time home buyers. The credit of up to $8,000 extends though the end of this year. The full details of the home-buyer tax credit can be found here.
The improvement in home sales looks to have inspired potential sellers to put more homes on the market. The number of unsold homes (condos & single-family) for sale rose 7.3% during July to the highest level since November. Nevertheless, year-to-year inventories were down 10.6%. At the current sales rate there was a 9.4 months' supply on the market. The figure was stable with June and was near the lowest since June 2007. For single-family homes the inventory rose 3.1% m/m (-13.2% y/y). At the current sales rate there was an 8.6 month's supply of homes on the market, the lowest since 2007.
The median price of an existing home dipped m/m to $178,400. Though prices were still lower than the year ago level, they have risen by 8.3% from the January low.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data is available in the REALTOR database.
Reflections on a Year of Crisis is the title of this morning's speech by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke in Jackson Hole, Wyoming and it is available here.
| Existing Home Sales (Thous, SAAR) | July | June | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 5,240 | 4,890 | 5.0% | 4,893 | 5,674 | 6,516 |
| Northeast | 930 | 820 | 3.3 | 845 | 1,010 | 1,093 |
| Midwest | 1,220 | 1,100 | 8.0 | 1,130 | 1,331 | 1,494 |
| South | 1,950 | 1,820 | 5.4 | 1,860 | 2,243 | 2,577 |
| West | 1,130 | 1,150 | 1.8 | 1,064 | 1,095 | 1,357 |
| Single-Family | 4,610 | 4,330 | 5.0 | 4,341 | 4,960 | 5,712 |
| Median Price, Total, $ | 178,400 | 182,000 | -15.1 | 197,250 | 216,633 | 222,042 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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