Global| Sep 21 2011U.S. Existing Home Sales Rise As Prices Fall
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Realtors reported that August sales of existing homes rose 7.7% to 5.030M (AR, 18.6% y/y) from an unrevised 4.670 in July. The y/y comparison is positive because of last year's decline after the ending of [...]
The National Association of Realtors reported that August sales of existing homes rose 7.7% to 5.030M (AR, 18.6% y/y) from an unrevised 4.670 in July. The y/y comparison is positive because of last year's decline after the ending of the first-time home buyers tax credit. The latest reading was stronger than Consensus expectations for 4.75M, according to Action Economics. Total sales include sales of condos and co-ops. Sales of existing single-family homes alone rose 8.5% m/m to 4.470M (20.2% y/y). (These data have a longer history than the total sales series.) Sales of condos and co-ops rose 1.8% m/m to .560M (8.3% y/y).
The months' supply of homes on the market fell to 8.5, the lowest since March. The number of homes on the market fell 13.1% y/y. The months' supply of single-family homes on the market was 8.3 but for condos & coops, it was 10.5 months.
The median price of all existing homes fell 1.7% m/m to $168,300 (-5.1% y/y) from a downwardly revised $171,200. In the Northeast, the median sales price of $244,100 (-5.1% y/y) compared to a price in the West of $189,400 which was down a sharper 13.0% y/y. In the Midwest the average price of $141,700 was down a lesser 3.5% y/y and in the South the price of $151,000 was down 0.8% y/y.
As a result of the price decline, the composite index of home price affordability rose 7.6% y/y. Nevertheless, it remained down from the highs of early this year as the payment as a percent of income rose to 14.1% from a low of 13.0%.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Existing Home Sales (Thous, SAAR) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Y/Y% | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 5,030 | 4,670 | 4,840 | 18.6 | 4,918 | 5,149 | 4,894 |
| Northeast | 770 | 750 | 730 | 10.0 | 825 | 863 | 848 |
| Midwest | 1,090 | 1,050 | 1,040 | 26.7 | 1,076 | 1,168 | 1,128 |
| South | 1,940 | 1,840 | 1,870 | 16.9 | 1,861 | 1,907 | 1,857 |
| West | 1,230 | 1,040 | 1,190 | 20.9 | 1,155 | 1,214 | 1,062 |
| Single-Family Sales | 4,470 | 4,120 | 4,290 | 20.2 | 4,311 | 4,559 | 4,337 |
| Median Price, Total, ($, NSA) | 168,300 | 171,200 | 175,600 | -5.1 | 172,442 | 172,742 | 197,233 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
