Global| Nov 23 2015U.S. Existing Home Sales Retreat; Prices Down for Fourth Straight Month
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes declined 3.4% (+0.9% y/y) during October to 5.360 million (AR) after an unrevised 4.7% increase to 5.550 million in September. The latest figure disappointed [...]
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes declined 3.4% (+0.9% y/y) during October to 5.360 million (AR) after an unrevised 4.7% increase to 5.550 million in September. The latest figure disappointed expectations for 5.40 million sales in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Single-family home sales were off 3.7% last month to 4.750 million (+1.5% y/y). Condo and co-op sales eased 1.6% (-3.7% y/y) and were 6.2% below their June high.
The median sales price of an existing home fell 0.9% to $219,600 (+5.8% y/y) and was down 7.1% from June's record $236,300. The average sales price fell 0.9% to $262,800 (+3.4% y/y).
By region, sales in the Northeast remained unchanged m/m at .760 million units (5.0% y/y) but were near the eight-year high. Sales in the West retreated 8.7% to 1.160 million (0.0% y/y) following September's 6.7% increase. In the South, sales declined 3.2% to 2.140 million (-2.7% y/y) and reversed the prior month's gain. In the Midwest, sales eased 0.8% to 1.300 million (+6.0% y/y) after September's 2.3% rise.
During September, the composite index of home affordability rose 3.5% to 163.5 (-2.9% y/y). Payments as a percent of income eased m/m to 15.3% but were up from the low of 11.7% in January 2013.
The inventory of unsold homes declined 4.5% y/y to 2.140 million. The 4.8 months' supply of homes on the market remained down from the 11.9 month high in July 2010.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the AS1REPNA database.
| Existing Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | Oct | Sep | Aug | NSA, Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 5,360 | 5,550 | 5,300 | 0.9 | 4,920 | 5,074 | 4,657 |
| Northeast | 760 | 760 | 700 | 5.0 | 640 | 658 | 596 |
| Midwest | 1,300 | 1,310 | 1,280 | 6.0 | 1,131 | 1,194 | 1,063 |
| South | 2,140 | 2,210 | 2,130 | -2.7 | 2,048 | 2,032 | 1,834 |
| West | 1,160 | 1,270 | 1,190 | 0.0 | 1,102 | 1,190 | 1,163 |
| Single-Family Sales | 4,750 | 4,930 | 4,680 | 1.5 | 4,334 | 4,473 | 4,125 |
| Median Price Total ($, NSA) | 219,600 | 221,700 | 228,500 | 5.8 | 206,708 | 195,667 | 175,433 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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