Global| Apr 22 2014U.S. Existing Home Sales Momentum Remains Weak
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Sales of existing single-family homes in March slipped 0.2% (-7.5% y/y) to 4.590 million (AR) versus an unrevised 4.600 million in February. Sales have declined in seven of the last eight months by a total 14.7%. The latest figure [...]
Sales of existing single-family homes in March slipped 0.2% (-7.5% y/y) to 4.590 million (AR) versus an unrevised 4.600 million in February. Sales have declined in seven of the last eight months by a total 14.7%. The latest figure roughly equaled consensus expectations for 4.570 million sales in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales of existing single family homes were unchanged at 4.040 million (-7.3% y/y). Sales of condos and co-ops were also unchanged (-7.3% y/y).
The median sales price of an existing single-family home increased 5.4% to $198,500 last month (7.9% y/y) but remained 7.2% below the peak this past June. Prices also remained 13.8% lower than the 2006 all-time peak.
The inventory of unsold homes rose 4.7% (3.1 y/y) last month but remained down by 50.1% since the 2007 peak. The months' supply of unsold homes edged up m/m to 5.2. That compares to an 11.9 month supply in July of 2010.
Home affordability nudged higher during February to its highest level in nine months as soft home prices offset the rise in mortgage rates to 4.47%.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, reported in the AS1REPNA database.
| Existing Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Y/Y % | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 4,590 | 4,600 | 4,620 | -7.5 | 5,073 | 4,659 | 4,277 |
| Northeast | 600 | 550 | 620 | -4.8 | 659 | 597 | 543 |
| Midwest | 1,040 | 1,000 | 1,040 | -10.3 | 1,193 | 1,064 | 917 |
| South | 1,920 | 1,980 | 1,950 | -3.0 | 2,032 | 1,834 | 1,683 |
| West | 1,030 | 1,070 | 1,010 | -13.4 | 1,190 | 1,164 | 1,133 |
| Single-Family Sales | 4,040 | 4,040 | 4,050 | -7.3 | 4,471 | 4,128 | 3,792 |
| Median Price Total ($, NSA) | 198,500 | 188,300 | 187,900 | 7.9 | 195,667 | 175,442 | 164,542 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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