Global| Sep 19 2013U.S. Existing Home Sales Improve Further As Prices Ease
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Sales of existing homes increased 1.7% during August (13.2% y/y) to 5.480 mil. units (AR), according to the National Association of Realtors. Earlier figures were unrevised and the latest was the highest since February 2007. Consensus [...]
Sales of existing homes increased 1.7% during August (13.2% y/y) to 5.480 mil. units (AR), according to the National Association of Realtors. Earlier figures were unrevised and the latest was the highest since February 2007. Consensus expectations had been for a decline 5.260 million sales. Sales of existing single-family homes alone increased 1.7% to 4.840 million (12.8% y/y). These data have a longer history than the total sales series. Sales of condos and co-ops gained 1.6% to 0.640 mil. (16.4% y/y).
The median price of an existing home slipped to $212,100 but remained up 14.7% y/y. It remained near the highest price reading since June 2008. The peak was $230,300 in July 2006.
Sales performance was mixed during August. The greatest m/m gain was logged in the South with a 3.8% increase (13.5% y/y). Next was the Midwest which posted a 3.1% sales rise (18.9% y/y. In the Northeast sales were flat m/m (12.7% y/y) while sales in the West fell 2.3% (+7.7% y/y).
The supply of homes on the market slipped to 4.9 months of sales and remained down from a high of 11.9 months in July of 2010. The actual number of homes on the market fell 6.3% y/y last month. That added to a 21.1% decline during all of last year and a 23.2% drop in 2011.
Reported earlier this month, the July composite index of home price affordability declined 5.1% (-14.0% y/y) to its lowest level since July 2009. The decline was due a rise in the average mortgage rate to 4.13%, up from the 3.43% December low.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, reported in the AS1REPNA database.
| Existing Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Y/Y % | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 5,480 | 5,390 | 5,060 | 13.2 | 4,661 | 4,278 | 4,183 |
| Northeast | 710 | 710 | 630 | 12.7 | 596 | 543 | 563 |
| Midwest | 1,320 | 1,280 | 1,210 | 18.9 | 1067 | 918 | 909 |
| South | 2,190 | 2,110 | 2,010 | 13.5 | 1,833 | 1,683 | 1,626 |
| West | 1,260 | 1,290 | 1,210 | 7.7 | 1,165 | 1,133 | 1,084 |
| Single-Family Sales | 4,840 | 4,760 | 4,480 | 12.8 | 4,130 | 3,793 | 3,705 |
| Median Price Total ($, NSA) | 212,100 | 212,400 | 214,000 | 14.7 | 175,442 | 164,542 | 172,442 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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