Global| Oct 21 2014U.S. Existing Home Sales Improve As Prices Fall Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Sales of existing single-family homes rose 2.4% to 5.170 million (AR, -1.7%) during September from an unrevised 5.050 million in August. Sales were 3.9% below the peak reached last July. The latest level beat expectations for 5.10 [...]
Sales of existing single-family homes rose 2.4% to 5.170 million (AR, -1.7%) during September from an unrevised 5.050 million in August. Sales were 3.9% below the peak reached last July. The latest level beat expectations for 5.10 million sales in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales of single-family homes improved 2.0% (-1.9% y/y) to 4.560 million. Sales of condos and co-ops increased 5.2% (0.0% y/y) to 0.610 million.
The median sales price of an existing single-family home declined 4.0% to $209,700 last month (+5.6% y/y). It was the lowest price since April. Prices were 9.0% below the all-time peak in July 2006.
Sales in the West rebounded 7.1% (-4.0% y/y) to the highest level in twelve months. In the South, sales recovered 5.0% (1.4% y/y) and matched the high for the economic expansion. Sales in the Northeast improved 1.5% (-1.4% y/y) to the highest level since last October. Countering these gains was a 5.6% sales decline (-4.9% y/y) in the Midwest. It was the lowest level since May.
During August, home affordability improved 1.2% (-1.4% y/y) as monthly mortgage payments slipped to 15.9% of median family income, down from its recent high of 16.1%. Mortgage rates averaged 4.24%, down from the January high of 4.54%.
The inventory of unsold homes rose 6.0% y/y to 2.300 million but remained 43% below the 2007 peak. The supply of unsold homes slipped to 5.3 months. That compares to an 11.9 month peak supply in July of 2010.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, reported in the AS1REPNA database.
| Existing Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Y/Y % | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 5,170 | 5,050 | 5,140 | -1.7 | 5,073 | 4,659 | 4,277 |
| Northeast | 680 | 670 | 640 | -1.4 | 659 | 597 | 543 |
| Midwest | 1,170 | 1,240 | 1,210 | -4.9 | 1,193 | 1,064 | 917 |
| South | 2,120 | 2,020 | 2,120 | 1.4 | 2,032 | 1,834 | 1,683 |
| West | 1,200 | 1,120 | 1,170 | -4.0 | 1,190 | 1,164 | 1,133 |
| Single-Family Sales | 4,560 | 4,470 | 4,540 | -1.9 | 4,471 | 4,128 | 3,792 |
| Median Price Total ($, NSA) | 209,700 | 218,400 | 221,600 | 5.6 | 195,667 | 175,442 | 164,542 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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