Global| Jan 25 2006

U.S. Existing Home Sales Fell A Third Month

Summary

According to the National Association of Realtors, total existing home sales fell 5.7% m/m to 6.600M (AR) in December from November which was revised down slightly. Consensus expectations for sales last month had been for a lesser decline to 6.90M. The decline was third in as many months and lowered sales to a level 10.2% below the June peak. Nevertheless, sales of existing homes set a record last year at 7.049M, up 4.9% year to year. Sales of single-family homes dropped a sharp 6.8% to 5.73M. This third consecutive monthly decline left sales 10.5% below the June peak. Annual sales last year of 6.157M (4.1%) set a new record. Lower sales of condos & co-ops rose 2.3% (4.8% y/y) in December. The data cover sales closed in the latest and previous months, and contrast to the new home sales data which count sales at the signing of a contract. December single family home sales fell throughout the country. Sales in the West broke 11.1% lower (-11.7% y/y), 19.0% off the June peak but for the year up 3.0%. Sales in the Northeast sales dropped 2.5% (-6.1% y/y), 11.5% below the June peak. In the South, sales fell 7.5% (+1.3% y/y) and in the Midwest, single family sales were down for the fifth month in the last six. The 3.6% (-4.3% y/y) decline was to a level 10.8% below the August peak. The median price of an existing single-family home dropped for the third month from the peak in August. Despite the 1.8% decline to $209,300 (+10.8% y/y), prices for the full year rose 12.8%. Prices are not seasonally adjusted.

The latest release from the National Association of Realtors is available here.

Existing Home Sales (000, AR)	Dec	Nov	Y/Y	2005	2004	2003
Total Home Sales	6,600	7,000	-3.1%	7,049	6,723	6,170
Single Family Home Sales	5,720	6,140	-4.2%	6,157	5,913	5,441
Single Family Median Home Price ($,000)	$209.3	$213.1	10.8%	$206.3	$182.8	$169.1

Tom Moeller
Author
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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