Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Dec 29 2005

U.S. Existing Home Sales Down Again

Summary

Total existing home sales fell for the second consecutive month, according to the National Association of Realtors The 1.7% decline to 6.970M (AR) in November followed an unrevised 2.7% October drop that left sales 5.2% below the [...]


Total existing home sales fell for the second consecutive month, according to the National Association of Realtors The 1.7% decline to 6.970M (AR) in November followed an unrevised 2.7% October drop that left sales 5.2% below the record level set in June. Consensus expectations for sales last month had been for less of a decline to 7.00M. Sales of single-family homes fell another 1.9% on top of the 2.5% October fall to 6.110M. The latest level was down 4.4% from the June peak. Though sales of condos & co-ops were flat m/m, they are off 10.4% from the peak in June. The data cover sales closed in the latest and previous months, and contrast to the new home sales data which count sales at the signing of a contract. Single family home sales fell hardest m/m in the West where a 4.0% drop left sales 8.9% below the June peak. In the Northeast sales fell 1.2% after the 8.0% drop in October and in the South sales dipped just 0.4%.In the Midwest single family sales fell 2.8% (0.0% y/y), off 7.4% from the August peak. The median price of an existing single-family home fell 1.5% m/m to $213,500 (+13.5% y/y). Prices are not seasonally adjusted. The latest release from the National Association of Realtors is available here.

The Baby Boom: Predictability in House Prices and Interest Rates from the Federal Reserve Board can be found here.

Existing Home Sales (000, AR) Nov Oct Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Total Home Sales 6,970 7,090 -0.1% 6,723 6,170 5,653
  Single Family Home Sales 6,110 6,230 -0.5% 5,913 5,441 4,995
Single Family Median Home Price ($,000) $213.5 $21 6.7 13.5% $182.8 $169.1 $157.6
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

    More in Author Profile »

More Economy in Brief