Global| Oct 19 2018U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Weaken, Dragging Down Prices
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The housing market softened last month. The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes during September declined 3.4% to 5.150 million (SAAR, -4.1%). August's figure was revised slightly lower to 5.330 [...]
The housing market softened last month. The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes during September declined 3.4% to 5.150 million (SAAR, -4.1%). August's figure was revised slightly lower to 5.330 million. Sales have declined for six consecutive months and were at the lowest level since November 2015, off 10.0% from the November 2017 peak. Expectations had been for 5.31 million sales in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The median price of all existing homes sold declined 2.8% last month (+4.2% y/y) to $258,100. Prices hit a record $273,800 in June. The average sales price fell 2.4% (+2.5% y/y) to $296,800.
By region, home sales in the South declined 5.4% (-0.5% y/y) to 2.110 million units, the lowest point since November 2015. Home sales in the West fell 3.6% (-12.2% y/y) to 1.080 million, also equaling the 2015 low. Home sales in the Northeast fell 2.9% (-5.6% y/y) to 680,000 units. Sales in the Midwest held steady m/m (-1.5% y/y) at 1.280 million units.
Sales of existing single-family homes fell 3.4% last month (-4.0% y/y) to 4.580 million units. Sales of co-ops & condos declined 3.4% (-5.0% y/y) to 570,000 units.
The number of homes on the market increased 1.1% y/y. The supply of homes on the market was little changed at 4.4 months, up from the record low of 3.2 months in December.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors and can be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the AS1REPNA database.
| Existing Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 5,150 | 5,330 | 5,340 | -4.1 | 5,536 | 5,441 | 5,228 |
| Northeast | 680 | 700 | 660 | -5.6 | 737 | 735 | 684 |
| Midwest | 1,280 | 1,280 | 1,250 | -1.5 | 1,304 | 1,298 | 1,231 |
| South | 2,110 | 2,230 | 2,240 | -0.5 | 2,270 | 2,217 | 2,147 |
| West | 1,080 | 1,120 | 1,190 | -12.2 | 1,225 | 1,192 | 1,167 |
| Single-Family | 4,580 | 4,740 | 4,750 | -4.0 | 4,910 | 4,825 | 4,623 |
| Median Price Total ($, NSA) | 258,100 | 265,600 | 269,300 | 4.2 | 245,950 | 232,067 | 219,867 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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