Global| Sep 23 2010U.S. Existing Home Sales Bounce Off Of All-Time Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Sales of existing homes recovered slightly last month following the expiration of the Federal home-buyer tax credit. August sales of existing homes increased 7.6% to 4.13M following a 27.0% July decline that was revised slightly [...]
Sales of existing homes recovered slightly last month following the
expiration of the Federal home-buyer tax credit. August sales of existing
homes increased 7.6% to 4.13M following a 27.0% July decline that was
revised slightly shallower than reported initially, according to the
National Association of Realtors. August sales were slightly better than
Consensus expectations for 4.10M. Total sales include sales of condos and
co-ops. Sales of existing single-family homes alone rose 7.4% (-19.2% y/y)
from July to 3.62M. (These data have a longer history than the total sales
series.) Sales of condos and co-ops rose 8.5% m/m but remained down 17.1%
from last year.
Despite signs of sales improvement, the median price of all existing homes fell 1.9% m/m to $178,600. Though prices remained off nearly 25% from the 2007 peak, they have risen 8.3% from the January low. The price of a single-family home fell 2.0% to $179,300 (+1.2% y/y). Earlier price weakness sharply raised home affordability -- by more-than-half from the 2006 low, though very recent price improvement has stalled. The median family income for existing home buyers was $60,498 and mortgage payments amounted to15.5% of that total.
The number of unsold homes (single-family & co-ops) for sale slipped in August but were up 1.5% y/y. At the current sales rate, the months' supply of homes on the market also slipped m/m but was near the record at 11.6. For single-family homes, the inventory also slipped m/m to an 11.3 months' supply.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data is available in the REALTOR database.
The Monetary Base and Bank Lending: You Can Lead a Horse To Water ... also from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here here.
| Existing Home Sales(Thous, SAAR) | August | July | June | August Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 4,130 | 3,830 | 5,260 | -19.0% | 5,160 | 4,893 | 5,674 |
| Northeast | 680 | 630 | 880 | -24.4 | 863 | 845 | 1,010 |
| Midwest | 840 | 800 | 1,230 | -26.3 | 1,166 | 1,130 | 1,331 |
| South | 1,620 | 1,540 | 1.990 | -13.4 | 1,913 | 1,860 | 2,243 |
| West | 990 | 870 | 1,160 | -26.1 | 1,216 | 1,064 | 1,095 |
| Single-Family Sales | 3,620 | 3,370 | 4,620 | -19.2 | 4,573 | 4,341 | 4,960 |
| Median Price, Total, $ (NSA) | 178,600 | 182,100 | 183,000 | 0.8 | 172,742 | 197,233 | 216,633 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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