Global| Dec 21 2011U.S. Existing Home Sales Add To Earlier Gains; Affordability Hits New High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Good deals prompt home sales. Such is the message from the National Association of Realtors which reported that November sales of existing homes jumped 4.0% to 4.420M (AR, +12.2% y/y) following a 1.4% October gain. The latest was the [...]
Good deals prompt home sales. Such is the message from the National Association of Realtors which reported that November sales of existing homes jumped 4.0% to 4.420M (AR, +12.2% y/y) following a 1.4% October gain. The latest was the highest since January. (The level of home sales was revised substantially lower back to 2007 as a result of benchmark revision.) Sales of existing single-family homes alone rose 4.5% m/m to 3.950M, up 12.9% y/y. (These data have a longer history than the total sales series). Sales of condos and co-ops were unchanged m/m at .470M (6.8% y/y).
Reported earlier this month, the composite index of home price affordability rose 10.8% y/y in October as mortgage payments as a percent of income fell to 12.6% versus the high near 25% in 2006. The average monthly mortgage rate fell to a new low of 4.32%.
The median price of all existing homes rose 2.1% m/m in November to $164,200 (-3.5% y/y) and made up most of the October decline. In the Northeast, the median sales price of $241,200 was down 1.4% y/y. In the West, the median price of $197,000 was off 9.2% y/y. In the South, the price of $147,800 was down 2.0% y/y and in the Midwest the price of $134,100 fell 3.2% y/y.
The months' supply of homes on the market fell sharply to 7.0, the lowest in two years. The months' supply of single-family homes on the market fell to 7.0 and for condos & coops it was a greatly-lessened 7.1 months. The total number of homes on the market fell 18.1% y/y. Inventories of single-family homes fell 16.1% y/y but multi-family home inventories fell by one-third.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Jobless Recoveries or Jobless Growth from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
| Existing Home Sales(Thous, SAAR) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Y/Y% | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 4,420 | 4,250 | 4,190 | 12.2 | 4,187 | 4,335 | 4,106 |
| Northeast | 560 | 510 | 540 | 7.7 | 565 | 583 | 573 |
| Midwest | 960 | 920 | 910 | 15.7 | 912 | 983 | 953 |
| South | 1,740 | 1,700 | 1,670 | 12.3 | 1,628 | 1,633 | 1,596 |
| West | 1,160 | 1,120 | 1,170 | 11.5 | 1,083 | 1,138 | 984 |
| Single-Family Sales | 3,950 | 3,780 | 3,730 | 12.9 | 3.708 | 3,867 | 3,655 |
| Median Price, Total, ($, NSA) | 164,200 | 160,800 | 165,300 | -3.5 | 172,442 | 172,783 | 197,158 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
