Global| Mar 06 2015U.S. Employment Increase is Unexpectedly Strong; Jobless Rate Falls to New Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Improvement in the labor market continues firm. Nonfarm payroll employment during February increased 295,000 (2.3% y/y) following a 239,000 January rise, revised from 257,000. The latest advance compared to expectations for 240,000 in [...]
Improvement in the labor market continues firm. Nonfarm payroll employment during February increased 295,000 (2.3% y/y) following a 239,000 January rise, revised from 257,000. The latest advance compared to expectations for 240,000 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Job growth was led by strength in the private services sector. It was accompanied by a diminished 0.1% rise (2.0% y/y) in average hourly earnings. A 0.2% gain was expected. The unemployment rate declined to 5.5%, the lowest level since May 2008. Expectations were for 5.6%. The overall unemployment rate, including marginally attached workers and those employed part-time for economic reasons, declined to 11.0%.
The labor market data is contained Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (M/M Chg., 000s) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 295 | 239 | 329 | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| Previous | -- | 257 | 329 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | 8 | 21 | 19 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Construction | 29 | 49 | 44 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 2.1 |
| Private Service Producing | 259 | 173 | 255 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.2 | |
| Government | 7 | 2 | 10 | 0.4 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -0.8 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.4 (Feb.'14) |
34.5 | 34.5 | 34.4 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 6.7 (Feb.'14) |
6.1 | 7.4 | 8.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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