Global| Sep 04 2020U.S. Employment Growth Remains Firm in August; Earnings Growth Picks Up & Jobless Rate Falls Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Strong job gains continue after coronavirus shutdowns ebb. • Earnings growth improves. • Jobless rate declines to five-month low. Labor market healing is continuing. Nonfarm payroll employment increased 1.371 million in August [...]
• Strong job gains continue after coronavirus shutdowns ebb.
• Earnings growth improves.
• Jobless rate declines to five-month low.
Labor market healing is continuing. Nonfarm payroll employment increased 1.371 million in August (-7.0% y/y) after rising 1.734 million in July, revised from 1.763 million. June employment improved 4.781 million, revised from 4.791 million. Job growth has been positive for four consecutive months following sharp declines in the prior two months during the economic recession. A 1.395 million employment increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The estimates amongst 24 forecasters had ranged from 435 to 2,000.
Average hourly earnings growth picked up to 0.4% (4.7% y/y) after a 0.1% July gain, revised from 0.2%. No change in earnings had been expected.
The unemployment rate fell to 8.4% from 10.2%. An easing to 9.9% had been expected. Employment in the household survey increased 3.756 million after rising 1.350 million in July while the labor force rose 968,000 after falling 62,000 in July. The overall jobless rate, including those who were marginally attached or working part-time for economic reasons, declined to 14.2% from 16.5%.
The employment & earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 1,371 | 1,734 | 4,781 | -7.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Previous Estimate | -- | 1,763 | 4,791 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | 29 | 41 | 333 | -5.6 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| Construction | 16 | 27 | 159 | -3.9 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.6 |
| Private Service-Producing | 984 | 1,420 | 4,244 | -8.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Government | 344 | 253 | 52 | -3.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.6 | 34.5 | 34.6 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.4 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.4 | 0.1 | -1.3 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.6 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 8.4 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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