Global| Apr 05 2019U.S. Employment Growth Improves But Wage Growth Moderates; Unemployment Rate Is Unchanged
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The March jobs report added to other indications that economic activity perked up last month. After having been restrained by bad winter weather in February, auto sales, the ISM factory index and existing home sales each rose. [...]
The March jobs report added to other indications that economic activity perked up last month. After having been restrained by bad winter weather in February, auto sales, the ISM factory index and existing home sales each rose. Foreshadowing today's favorable report, initial unemployment insurance claims fell to a 49-year low.
Nonfarm payrolls increased 196,000 (1.7% y/y) during March following a 33,000 February rise, revised from 20,000. January's rise was little changed at 312,000. The March increase exceeded expectations for a 175,000 increase in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Countering these positive readings was a minimal 0.1% uptick (3.2% y/y) in average hourly earnings which fell short of expectations for a 0.2% rise. It followed an unrevised 0.4% February gain.
The March unemployment rate held steady at an expected 3.8%. The overall jobless rate, including those who were marginally attached or working part-time for economic reasons, also was unchanged at 7.3%, the lowest level since March 2001.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 196 | 33 | 312 | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% |
| Previous Estimate | -- | 20 | 311 | -- | -- | -- | |
| Manufacturing | -6 | 1 | 17 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Construction | 16 | -25 | 56 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Private Service-Producing | 170 | 56 | 217 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Government | 14 | 5 | 15 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.4 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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