Global| Jul 02 2020U.S. Employment Continues to Increase in June, Lowering Jobless Rate
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Rise in jobs is broad-based amongst industries. • Earnings weaken for second straight month. • Unemployment rate, though still double-digit, declines to three-month low. The job market improved again in June. Nonfarm payroll [...]
• Rise in jobs is broad-based amongst industries.
• Earnings weaken for second straight month.
• Unemployment rate, though still double-digit, declines to three-month low.
The job market improved again in June. Nonfarm payroll employment increased 4.800 million (-8.7% y/y) after rising 2.699 million in May, revised from 2.509 million. A 3.090 million increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Average hourly earnings declined 1.2% (+5.0% y/y) as factory sector earnings dropped sharply.
The unemployment rate fell to 11.1% from 13.3%. A lesser decline to 12.3% had been expected. Employment in the household survey increased 4.940 million after rising 3.839 million in May while the labor force rose 1.705 million after increasing 1.746 million. The overall jobless rate, including those who were marginally attached or working part-time for economic reasons, declined to 18.0% from 21.2%.
The employment & earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th of the month.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 4,800 | 2,699 | -20,787 | -8.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Previous Estimate | -- | 2,509 | -20,687 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | 356 | 250 | -1,317 | -5.8 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| Construction | 158 | 453 | -1,018 | -4.4 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.6 |
| Private Service-Producing | 4,263 | 2,548 | -17,447 | -9.9 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Government | 33 | -533 | -952 | -5.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.5 | 34.7 | 34.2 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.4 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | -1.2 | -1.0 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.6 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 11.1 | 13.3 | 14.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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