Global| Jan 04 2019U.S. Employment and Earnings Strengthen in December
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The labor market finished 2018 on a firm footing. Nonfarm payrolls increased 312,000 (1.8% y/y) during December after a 176,000 November rise, revised from 155,000. October's gain also was revised up to 274,000 from 237,000. The [...]
The labor market finished 2018 on a firm footing. Nonfarm payrolls increased 312,000 (1.8% y/y) during December after a 176,000 November rise, revised from 155,000. October's gain also was revised up to 274,000 from 237,000. The December increase exceeded expectations for a 195,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During all of last year, payrolls grew an average 220,000 per month following a 182,000 monthly average in 2017. It was the strongest 12-month gain since 2015. Average hourly earnings strengthened 0.4% during December following two months of 0.2% increase. A 0.3% rise had been expected. The 3.2% y/y increase matched the strongest 12-month gain since April 2009. The unemployment rate increased to 3.9%, the highest level since July. Stability at 3.7% had been expected.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 312 | 176 | 274 | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% |
| Previous Estimate | 155 | 237 | -- | -- | -- | ||
| Manufacturing | 32 | 27 | 29 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Construction | 38 | 0 | 31 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 4.1 |
| Private Service-Producing | 227 | 146 | 217 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Government | 11 | 3 | -7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.4 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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