Global| Aug 15 2008U.S. Empire State Index Slightly Positive
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that its July index of manufacturing activity in the Empire State improved to a slightly positive 2.77 after having been at -4.92 during June. It was the first positive reading since April [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that its July index of manufacturing activity in the Empire State improved to a slightly positive 2.77 after having been at -4.92 during June. It was the first positive reading since April though the level of the index remained quite low. A reading of -4.2 for July had been the Consensus expectation.
The figure is a diffusion index. Since the series' inception in 2001 there has been a 55% correlation between the index level and the three-month change in U.S. factory sector industrial production.
The subseries for new orders, shipments and the number of employees all remained negative last month while the series for inventories and the average employee workweek turned positive.
The employment index was near the most negative reading since 2003. In the (perhaps too) short seven year history of the NY employment index, there has been an 86% correlation between it and the three-month growth in overall factory sector employment.
Like the Philadelphia Fed Index of General Business Conditions, the Empire State Business Conditions Index reflects answers to an independent survey question; it is not a weighted combination of the components.
Pricing pressure eased to its lowest level since April after hitting a series' high in June. Since inception in 2001 there has been an 81% correlation between the index of prices paid and the three-month change in the core intermediate materials PPI.
The Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved to its highest level this year after having fallen sharply in June. The subseries for new orders and shipments were up sharply while the employment series showed just a modest gain.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead.For more on the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, including methodologies and the latest report, click here.
The Changing Nature of the U.S. Balance of Payments from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
| Empire State Manufacturing Survey | July | June | July '07 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Business Conditions (diffusion index, %) | 2.77 | -4.92 | 25.18 | 17.23 | 20.24 | 15.53 |
| Prices Paid | 65.17 | 77.89 | 34.41 | 35.64 | 41.88 | 44.74 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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