Global| Mar 24 2005U.S. Durable Goods Orders Up Slightly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Durable goods orders rose 0.3% last month following a 1.1% decline in January that was deeper than initially estimated. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.8% gain. Nondefense capital goods orders were about unchanged after an [...]
Durable goods orders rose 0.3% last month following a 1.1% decline in January that was deeper than initially estimated. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.8% gain.
Nondefense capital goods orders were about unchanged after an upwardly revised gain in January. Less aircraft orders fell 2.1% but the January increase was sharply higher than initially reported.
Higher orders for computers & electronic paced the February gain with a 1.2% (10.9% y/y) rise. Orders for transportation equipment also rose 1.6% (-2.5% y/y).
Electrical equipment orders gave back 4.5% (+6.8% y/y) of a 13.7% jump in January and machinery orders fell 1.1% (+14.4% y/y). Primary metals orders ticked 0.6% (17.1% y/y) higher but orders for fabricated metals fell.
Inventories of durable goods added 0.6% (9.5% y/y) to an upwardly revised 1.6% jump in January. However, shipments fell 1.6% (8.5% y/y) and caused the I/S ratio to rise.
Unfilled orders rose 0.6% and pulled the ratio of backlogs to shipments to the highest level since November.
| NAICS Classification | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Goods Orders | 0.3% | -1.1% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 2.6% | -1.7% |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -0.0% | 1.1% | 15.2% | 13.7% | 5.6% | -7.2% |
| Excluding Aircraft | -2.1% | 4.4% | 13.6% | 11.7% | 6.6% | -7.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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