Global| Mar 25 2020U.S. Durable Goods Orders Surge Pre-Coronavirus Outbreak; Orders Excluding Aircraft Ease
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods strengthened 1.2% during February before business ground to a halt in March. Despite the m/m improvement, orders remained down 0.1% y/y. A 1.0% decline had been expected in the Action Economics [...]
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods strengthened 1.2% during February before business ground to a halt in March. Despite the m/m improvement, orders remained down 0.1% y/y. A 1.0% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The y/y orders decline closely matched the 0.5% shortfall in industrial production of durable goods.
Last month's orders included a 0.8% drop (-0.6% y/y) in nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft which reversed a 1.0% January increase.
Stronger transportation sector orders led the overall orders increase in February with a 4.6% gain. Orders excluding transportation eased 0.6% (-0.9% y/y) and reversed January's rise. The transportation increase was led by a 1.8% surge (-2.6% y/y) in motor vehicle & parts. Aircraft & parts orders eased m/m.
Orders for electrical equipment & parts rose 1.3% (3.2% y/y). Offsetting this rise was a 0.8% decline (-0.3% y/y) in bookings for computers & electronic products. Also weakening were machinery orders which fell 0.5% (-2.5% y/y). Primary & fabricated metals orders also eased both m/m and y/y.
Shipments of durable goods rose 0.8% (-2.4% y/y) as transportation shipments rose 2.9% (-5.1% y/y). Shipments less transportation eased 0.2% (-1.0% y/y) helped by a 0.7% decline (-1.3% y/y) in nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft.
Unfilled orders for durable products improved 0.1% (-1.7% y/y) following two months of stability.
Durable goods inventories were unchanged (3.7% y/y) last month, although they had been rising steadily through December. These gains were powered by strength in the transportation sector. Inventories less transportation fell 0.2% for a second consecutive month and were down 0.7% y/y.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | 1.2 | 0.1 | 2.8 | -0.1 | -1.2 | 7.9 | 5.4 |
| Transportation | 4.6 | -0.9 | 8.8 | 1.5 | -4.3 | 9.8 | 3.2 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -0.6 | 0.6 | -0.1 | -0.9 | 0.4 | 6.9 | 6.5 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods Excl. Aircraft | -0.8 | 1.0 | -0.8 | -0.6 | 0.9 | 6.0 | 6.7 |
| Shipments | 0.8 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -2.4 | 1.2 | 7.1 | 4.0 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods Excl. Aircraft | -0.7 | 1.1 | -0.4 | -1.3 | 2.1 | 6.3 | 5.6 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.7 | -2.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 |
| Inventories | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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