Global| Oct 25 2013U.S. Durable Goods Orders Surge As Aircraft Bookings Jump
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods strengthened by 3.7% last month (7.4% y/y) following a little-revised 0.2% August uptick. The latest figure was double expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders for nondefense aircraft & [...]
New orders for durable goods strengthened by 3.7% last month (7.4% y/y) following a little-revised 0.2% August uptick. The latest figure was double expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders for nondefense aircraft & parts led the total higher with a 57.5% rise (17.4% y/y). That was accompanied by a 15.2% increase (-9.9% y/y) in defense aircraft bookings. In contrast, motor vehicle & parts orders edged 0.3% lower (+12.0% y/y).
Outside of the transportation sector orders slipped 0.1% (+5.6% y/y), the third consecutive month of shortfall. Orders for computers & electronic equipment gained 0.6% (-1.0% y/y). Orders for computers rose 7.1% (-9.6% y/y). Communications equipment bookings recovered 6.8% (14.3% y/y) following three months of sharp decline. Offsetting these gains was a 1.8% decline (+11.7% y/y) in machinery orders along with a 0.3% slip (-0.3% y/y) in electrical equipment orders. A 6.9% increase (9.3% y/y) in nondefense capital goods orders reflected the strength in aircraft bookings, but orders excluding aircraft fell 1.1% (+8.3% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods ticked 0.2% higher (4.3% y/y) even though transportation shipments slipped marginally (+8.3% y/y). Shipments excluding transportation improved 0.3% (2.7% y/y) led by a 0.8% rise (-0.6% y/y) in computers & electronic products. Shipments of nondefense capital goods edged 0.4% higher (2.6% y/y) though shipments excluding aircraft slipped 0.2% (+2.6% y/y).
Inventories of durable goods gained 0.9% (2.7% y/y) while transportation inventories moved 1.5% higher (8.5% y/y). Unfilled orders for durable goods improved 0.8% (6.5% y/y). Backlogs excluding transportation gained 0.3% (4.9% y/y) after a 1.5% decline during all of last year.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Sep | Aug | Jul | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 3.7 | 0.2 | -8.1 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 11.0 | 23.2 |
| Transportation | 12.3 | 1.7 | -21.9 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 14.9 | 49.5 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.5 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 9.5 | 15.2 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 6.9 | -0.6 | -17.5 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 15.3 | 27.5 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -1.1 | 0.4 | -3.5 | 8.3 | 2.1 | 11.6 | 12.9 |
| Shipments | 0.2 | 0.8 | -0.1 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 9.4 | 11.0 |
| Inventories | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 10.8 | 9.4 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 10.0 | 5.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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