Global| Apr 27 2011U.S. Durable Goods Orders Strengthen Broadly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods jumped 2.5% last month after a 0.7% February gain, revised up from -0.9% reported initially. Consensus expectations were for a 1.5% increase. Another jump in transportation sector orders fueled last [...]
New orders for durable goods jumped 2.5% last month after a 0.7% February gain, revised up from -0.9% reported initially. Consensus expectations were for a 1.5% increase. Another jump in transportation sector orders fueled last month's increase. Motor vehicle & parts orders rose 3.7% (15.8% y/y) after a like increase during February. Orders for aircraft & parts also gained 2.5% (79.4% y/y) following the 14.4% February jump. Excluding the transportation sector altogether, orders rose 1.3% after a 0.6% February gain, revised from -0.6%.
Outside of the transportation sector, the gain in new orders last month was broad-based. Strength in the capital goods sector raised nondefense capital goods orders, less aircraft, by 3.7%. That gain was paced by a 4.2% increase (10.0% y/y) in machinery orders. Orders for electrical equipment & appliances also rose 3.1% (3.1% y/y). Orders for computers & electronic components fell 1.1% (-0.8% y/y). Defense capital goods bookings rose 7.6% (-17.7% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods also improved last month by 1.8% and 7.2% y/y. That gain compares to an 11.2% y/y increase in March industrial production of durable goods. Less transportation, shipments rose 1.4% (7.7% y/y) after no-change in February. Inventory accumulation continued strong last month. A 1.3% increase matched the upwardly-revised February increase and pulled inventories up 11.5% y/y. As orders outpaced shipments, unfilled orders rose 0.8%, the third consecutive like increase and 5.7% y/y.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| NAICS Classification (%) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Goods Orders | 2.5 | 0.7 | 3.7 | 10.5 | 13.6 | -20.7 | -9.0 |
| Excluding Transportation | 1.3 | 0.6 | -2.9 | 6.1 | 13.8 | -18.4 | -2.5 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 3.2 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 20.9 | 21.9 | -26.8 | -12.6 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 3.7 | 0.5 | -5.9 | 9.2 | 16.9 | -19.8 | -4.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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