Global| May 26 2016U.S. Durable Goods Orders' Strength Led by Civilian Aircraft; Capital Spending Weakens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods jumped 3.4% during April (1.9% y/y) following a 1.9% March increase, revised from 0.8%. A 0.2% April gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Data were revised back to 2001. A 64.9% [...]
New orders for durable goods jumped 3.4% during April (1.9% y/y) following a 1.9% March increase, revised from 0.8%. A 0.2% April gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Data were revised back to 2001.
A 64.9% rise (5.1% y/y) in orders for civilian aircraft drove total transportation sector orders 8.9% higher (8.2% y/y). Orders for defense aircraft & parts declined 4.5% (+29.8% y/y) and motor vehicle & parts orders gained 2.9% (4.1% y/y). Excluding the transportation sector altogether, total durable goods orders improved 0.4% (-1.4% y/y) after a 0.1% rise.
Business investment remained soft. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding civilian aircraft eased 0.8% (-5.0% y/y), down for the fifth month in the last six.
A 1.9% decline (-7.1% y/y) in machinery orders exemplified the weakness in capital spending. It was the third consecutive monthly decline. To the upside, orders for electrical equipment, appliances & components improved 0.5% (-8.6% y/y) following three consecutive months of decline, and computer & electronic products orders gained 1.9% (+4.0% y/y). Primary metals orders remained roughly unchanged (-9.2% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods improved 0.6% (-1.2% y/y) after easing 0.8% for two straight months. Shipments excluding transportation gained 0.3% (-1.9% y/y). Unfilled orders for durable goods rose 0.6% (-1.7% y/y), and excluding transportation they rose 0.1% for the third straight month (-0.4% y/y). Inventories declined 0.2% (-2.3% y/y), and they've been falling since June.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | 3.4 | 1.9 | -3.3 | 1.9 | -2.9 | 4.8 | 2.8 |
| Transportation | 8.9 | 5.3 | -6.7 | 8.2 | -4.0 | 6.8 | 8.8 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.4 | 0.1 | -1.5 | -1.4 | -2.3 | 3.8 | -0.1 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 7.8 | -0.1 | -7.9 | -4.5 | -9.6 | 1.2 | 4.2 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -0.8 | -0.1 | -2.1 | -5.0 | -3.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Shipments | 0.6 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -1.2 | 1.1 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Inventories | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -2.3 | -0.6 | 5.2 | 1.0 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.6 | 0.0 | -0.5 | -1.7 | -2.4 | 8.6 | 5.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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