Global| Aug 26 2014U.S. Durable Goods Orders Soar With Aircraft Bookings
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods surged 22.6% last month (33.8% y/y) following a 2.7% June gain, revised from 0.7%. A 5.5% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The increase reflected a 318% jump (474% y/y) in [...]
New orders for durable goods surged 22.6% last month (33.8% y/y) following a 2.7% June gain, revised from 0.7%. A 5.5% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The increase reflected a 318% jump (474% y/y) in civilian aircraft orders which sparked a nearly two-thirds rise in nondefense capital goods orders. Bookings for capital goods excluding aircraft fell 0.5% (+8.3% y/y) but that followed a 5.4% jump, revised from 1.4%. Elsewhere in the transportation sector, orders for motor vehicles & parts increased 10.2% (15.0% y/y), the most since August 2009, following a 1.3% decline.
In most other sectors, new orders stuttered. Electrical equipment orders fell 3.7% (+3.2% y/y) after a 5.9% increase. Machinery orders declined 1.6% (+8.1% y/y) following a 4.9% jump. Orders for computers & electronic products were off 1.2% (+4.2% y/y) after a 4.0% increase. This decline reflected a 6.9% decrease (+16.6% y/y) in orders for computers which offset a 9.9% rise (-2.7% y/y) in communication equipment. Primary metals orders slipped 0.3% (+9.3% y/y) on the heels of a 1.9% jump.
Shipments of durable goods gained 3.3% (8.9% y/y) following a 1.2% increase. Shipments excluding transportation firmed 1.4% (7.5% y/y) following a 1.1% rise. Order backlogs gained 5.4% (12.3% y/y) following a 1.0% increase. Inventory building continued with a 0.5% (6.0% y/y) rise for the second consecutive month.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Jul | Jun | May | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | 22.6 | 2.7 | -0.9 | 33.8 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 11.0 |
| Transportation | 74.2 | 2.1 | -2.6 | 97.1 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 14.9 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -0.8 | 3.0 | -0.1 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 9.5 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 60.8 | 5.1 | -2.3 | 78.6 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 15.3 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -0.5 | 5.4 | -1.4 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 11.6 |
| Shipments | 3.3 | 1.2 | -0.0 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 9.4 |
| Inventories | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 10.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | 5.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 10.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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