Global| Dec 24 2013U.S. Durable Goods Orders Show Broad-Based Strength
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Strength in the factory sector is gaining momentum. Orders for durable goods jumped 3.5% (10.9% y/y) last month following a 0.7% October slip, revised from the initial report of a 2.0% decline. A 21.8% surge (63.9% y/y) in orders for [...]
Strength in the factory sector is gaining momentum. Orders for durable goods jumped 3.5% (10.9% y/y) last month following a 0.7% October slip, revised from the initial report of a 2.0% decline. A 21.8% surge (63.9% y/y) in orders for nondefense aircraft & parts powered the growth in total orders last month. Defense aircraft bookings also rose 10.1%, though they were down 20.5% y/y. Strength in the transportation sector also reflected a 3.3% rise (15.2% y/y) in motor vehicles & parts orders.
Outside of the transportation sector new orders gained 1.2% (6.1% y/y) following two months of more modest increase. Orders for machinery gained 3.8% (10.8% y/y) while orders for computers & electronic products rose 1.7% (5.8% y/y). These increases were offset by a 1.2% decline (-1.9% y/y) in orders for electrical equipment, appliances & components. Strength in business investment was part of last month's orders gain. Nondefense capital goods orders jumped 9.4% (21.5% y/y), lifted by a 4.5% gain (7.4% y/y) in orders excluding aircraft. This latest rise made up for declines in three of the prior four months.
Shipments of durable goods jumped 1.8% (5.8% y/y) following three months of more moderate increase. Shipments excluding the transportation sector rose 1.6% (3.7% y/y). The relative strength in new orders versus shipments generated a 1.0% increase (7.8% y/y) in unfilled orders. Order backlogs outside of the transportation sector rose 0.5% (6.5% y/y). Inventories of durable goods gained 0.3% (2.8% y/y) and less transportation they also rose 0.3% (0.5% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Nov | Oct | Sep | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 3.5 | -0.7 | 4.2 | 10.9 | 4.1 | 11.0 | 23.2 |
| Transportation | 8.4 | -3.5 | 13.1 | 21.9 | 8.9 | 14.9 | 49.5 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 9.5 | 15.2 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 9.4 | -0.9 | 7.0 | 21.5 | 3.7 | 15.3 | 27.5 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 4.5 | -0.7 | -1.2 | 7.4 | 2.1 | 11.6 | 12.9 |
| Shipments | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 9.4 | 11.0 |
| Inventories | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 10.8 | 9.4 |
| Unfilled Orders | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 10.0 | 5.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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