Global| Apr 24 2020U.S. Durable Goods Orders & Shipments Fall
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Durable goods orders weaken 14.4% in March, the sharpest decline since August 2014. • Commercial aircraft orders plummet. • Inventories surge.
• Durable goods orders weaken 14.4% in March, the sharpest decline since August 2014.
• Commercial aircraft orders plummet.
• Inventories surge.
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods fell 14.4% last month (+16.0% y/y) following a 1.1% February rise, revised from 1.2%. An 11.1% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Last month's orders weakness was paced by a 41.0% shortfall (-43.6% y/y) in transportation sector orders. It reflected a sharp drop in commercial aircraft bookings as well as an 18.4% weakening (-21.1% y/y) in motor vehicle and parts orders. Orders excluding the transportation sector eased 0.2% last month (-0.7% y/y) following a 0.7% decline.
Orders for electrical equipment & appliances rose 1.5% (3.9% y/y), about the same as they did in February. Offsetting this rise was a 0.1% easing (-1.5% y/y) in bookings for computers & electronic products. Machinery orders also slipped 0.2% (-1.2% y/y). Primary & fabricated metals orders also declined both m/m and y/y.
Shipments of durable goods weakened 4.5% (-6.5% y/y) as transportation shipments fell 12.8% (-17.2% y/y), paced by an 18.5% shortfall (-21.6% y/y) in motor vehicles & parts. Aircraft & parts shipments actually rose 5.3% (-19.4% y/y) in March. Shipments less transportation eased 0.3% (-0.7% y/y) for a second straight month. Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft shipments were off 0.2% (-1.0% y/y).
Unfilled orders for durable products declined 2.0% (-3.8% y/y). Order backlogs excluding transportation edged 0.1% lower (-0.5% y/y), off slightly for the fifth straight month.
Durable goods inventories increased 0.6% (4.0% y/y) last month, the largest rise since September 2018. Transportation sector inventories also rose 0.6% (13.4% y/y) while durable goods inventories less transportation gained 0.6%, but declined 0.5% y/y.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | -14.4 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 16.0 | -1.2 | 7.9 | 5.4 |
| Transportation | -41.0 | 4.6 | -1.0 | -43.6 | -4.3 | 9.8 | 3.2 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -0.2 | -0.7 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 0.4 | 6.9 | 6.5 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods Excl. Aircraft | 0.1 | -0.8 | 1.0 | -0.7 | 0.9 | 6.0 | 6.7 |
| Shipments | -4.5 | 0.8 | -0.0 | -6.5 | 1.2 | 7.1 | 4.0 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods Excl. Aircraft | -0.2 | -0.9 | 1.1 | -1.0 | 2.1 | 6.3 | 5.6 |
| Unfilled Orders | -2.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -3.8 | -2.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 |
| Inventories | 0.6 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
