Global| Dec 23 2011U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise As Aircraft Soars
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods increased 3.8% last month following little change during October, initially reported as -0.7%. Transportation orders jumped 14.7% (28.3% y/y) as orders for aircraft & parts rose by more-than-one half [...]
New orders for durable goods increased 3.8% last month following little change during October, initially reported as -0.7%. Transportation orders jumped 14.7% (28.3% y/y) as orders for aircraft & parts rose by more-than-one half (88.3% y/y) and more than made up the prior two months' declines. Orders for motor vehicles & parts slipped 0.5% (+12.7% y/y), down for the third straight month.
Outside of the transportation sector, orders rose 0.3% (7.2% y/y). That gain was led by a 5.2% (24.0% y/y) rise in primary metals while machinery orders rose 0.9% (15.2% y/y). Computers & other electronics orders fell 4.4% (-5.8% y/y) and computer orders alone fell 6.0% (+0.3% y/y). Orders for communications equipment declined 10.3% and were off by 16.7% y/y. The sub-total of orders for nondefense capital goods rose 8.1% (21.3% y/y). Outside of aircraft orders fell 1.2% (+6.5% y/y) following a 0.9% October decline.
Shipments of durable goods slipped 0.4% (+9.1% y/y) last month. Less the transportation sector shipments edged up 0.2% (9.1% y/y). Inventory accumulation picked up again with a 0.6% (11.2% y/y) monthly increase led by a 15.9% rise in transportation equipment. Unfilled orders jumped 1.3% (7.1% y/y) led by a 1.2% gain (28.1% y/y) in machinery.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification (%) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orders | 3.8 | -0.0 | -1.4 | 12.1 | 15.4 | -27.3 | -6.3 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 8.1 | -3.5 | -3.5 | 21.3 | 28.0 | -31.0 | -8.4 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -1.2 | -0.9 | 1.4 | 6.5 | 17.2 | -20.4 | -1.2 |
| Shipments | -0.4 | 1.5 | -0.4 | 9.1 | 6.2 | -20.4 | -2.8 |
| Inventories | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 11.2 | 9.9 | -9.0 | -0.2 |
| Unfilled Orders | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 7.9 | 3.9 | -15.2 | 4.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
