Global| Aug 24 2012U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Again Led By Transportation
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods jumped another 4.2% last month following an unrevised 1.6% June increase. Expectations had been for a 1.5% July rise. Strength continued to center in the transportation sector where orders jumped 14.1% [...]
New orders for durable goods jumped another 4.2% last month following an unrevised 1.6% June increase. Expectations had been for a 1.5% July rise. Strength continued to center in the transportation sector where orders jumped 14.1% (16.2% y/y) after a 10.8% June gain. Aircraft orders increased by roughly one third m/m and by more than one half y/y. Also, orders for motor vehicles & parts gained 12.8% (6.0% y/y). Outside of the transportation sector, however, activity has been struggling and orders slipped 0.4% (-0.3% y/y) last month after a 2.2% June drop.
Weakness in other industries was led by machinery where orders fell 3.6% (-11.1% y/y). In addition, electrical equipment bookings were off 2.1% (-0.9% y/y). These declines were partially offset by a 2.7% increase in primary metals (5.9% y/y) and a 1.0% rise (2.0% y/y) in computers & electronic products.
A 2.6% gain (6.1% y/y) in shipments of durable goods also was led by the transportation sector where both aircraft (13.8% y/y) and motor vehicles (6.4% y/y) have been strong. Excluding transportation, shipments ticked up just 0.3% (6.0% y/y) after a 0.5% June increase. These gains in orders & shipments left unfilled orders up just 0.8% (8.0% y/y), but down 0.7% (+5.3% y/y) excluding transportation equipment. Inventory accumulation continued to decelerate. The 0.7% rise in inventories last month left the y/y gain at 5.4%, less than half the rate of increase twelve months ago. The lesser 3.8% y/y rate of accumulation excluding transportation was one third its peak rate early last year.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
The Rise of Corporate Savings from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is available here.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Jul | Jun | May | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 4.2 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 27.1 | -30.0 |
| Transportation | 14.1 | 10.8 | 3.6 | 16.2 | 12.8 | 57.4 | -42.0 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -0.4 | -2.2 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 8.6 | 18.0 | -25.4 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 6.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 6.7 | 13.2 | 36.3 | -36.9 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -3.4 | -2.7 | 2.3 | -5.6 | 10.3 | 17.1 | -24.5 |
| Shipments | 2.6 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 6.1 | 9.6 | 11.4 | -21.0 |
| Inventories | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.5 | -10.2 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.8 | 0.4 | -0.0 | 8.0 | 10.3 | 9.6 | -19.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
