Global| Oct 28 2014U.S. Durable Goods Orders Retreat Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods declined 1.3% during September (+3.3% y/y) following a little-revised 18.3% August slump. The decline disappointed expectations for a 0.7% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was exacerbated [...]
New orders for durable goods declined 1.3% during September (+3.3% y/y) following a little-revised 18.3% August slump. The decline disappointed expectations for a 0.7% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was exacerbated by a 16.1% drop (-19.2% y/y) in orders for nondefense aircraft & parts following its 74.0% decline in August. Overall transportation sector orders fell 3.7% (-4.9% y/y), without which durable orders slipped 0.2% (+7.3% y/y) after a 0.7% rise.
Orders in other sectors were mixed last month. Primary metals orders gained 2.2% (8.9% y/y) after a 0.1% rise. Electrical equipment orders improved 1.8% (10.1% y/y) following a 2.8% increase. To the downside, machinery orders fell 2.8% (+8.2% y/y) after a 1.1% gain. Computers & electronic products bookings declined 2.5% (+5.3% y/y) after a 1.7% increase. This falloff reflected a 5.3% drop (-17.2% y/y) in orders for computers & related products, the fourth consecutive monthly shortfall. Communication equipment bookings plummeted 16.6% (-16.7% y/y) after a 1.3% gain.
Shipments of durable goods edged 0.1% higher (5.7% y/y) following a 1.8% decline. Shipments excluding transportation were roughly unchanged (6.4% y/y) for the second straight month. Order backlogs improved 0.3% (12.2% y/y) following a 0.6% increase. Excluding transportation unfilled orders rose unfilled orders rose 0.7% (6.8% y/y). Inventory building remained steady with a fourth straight 0.4% increase (5.8% y/y). Excluding the transportation sector, inventories rose 0.3% (4.0% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Sep | Aug | Jul | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | -1.3 | -18.3 | 22.5 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 11.0 |
| Transportation | -3.7 | -42.4 | 73.3 | -4.9 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 14.9 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -0.2 | 0.7 | -0.6 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 9.5 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -5.4 | -36.5 | 60.9 | 1.4 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 15.3 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -1.7 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 11.6 |
| Shipments | 0.1 | -1.8 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 9.4 |
| Inventories | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 10.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.3 | 0.6 | 5.3 | 12.2 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 10.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
