Global| Apr 24 2013U.S. Durable Goods Orders Retrace Earlier Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total durable goods orders during March fell 5.7% (+0.5% y/y) following a downwardly revised 4.3% increase in February. A 3.0% decline had been expected. Last month's decline was led by a 15.0% drop (+2.5% y/y) in transportation [...]
Total durable goods orders during March fell 5.7% (+0.5% y/y) following a downwardly revised 4.3% increase in February. A 3.0% decline had been expected. Last month's decline was led by a 15.0% drop (+2.5% y/y) in transportation sector orders. That was paced by a nearly one-half drop (-22.7% y/y) in aircraft & parts, reflecting a near-halving (+2.1% y/y) in the nondefense sector. Orders for motor vehicles & parts ticked up 0.2% (11.9% y/y).
Outside of the transportation sector orders dropped 1.4% (-0.3% y/y), about the same as during February. Leading the decline was a 3.0% drop (-0.9% y/y) in primary metals orders. Electrical equipment bookings were off 2.4% (-1.7% y/y) while machinery bookings fell 1.4% (+5.0% y/y). Orders for computers & electronic products rose 1.0% but declined 11.2% y/y. Orders for nondefense capital goods dropped 10.6% (+0.3% y/y) as aircraft orders fell. Orders outside of aircraft ticked up 0.2% (-0.7% y/t) while defense orders fell by one-third (-40.6% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods gained 0.4% (4.1% y/y) last month and reached another record high level for the series. Transportation sector shipments increased 2.1% (9.2% y/y) last month. Outside of the transportation sector, shipments slipped 0.2% (+2.1% y/y). Nondefense capital goods shipments rose 2.1% (2.6% y/y) but excluding aircraft, they ticked up just 0.3% (1.2% y/y).
Unfilled orders for durable goods fell 0.6% (+0.5% y/y) in March. Outside of the transportation sector backlogs fell 0.3% (-3.1% y/y). Inventories of durable goods ticked up 0.1% (3.9% y/y) last month. Excluding transportation, inventories gained 0.2% (1.3% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Mar | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | -5.7 | 4.3 | -3.7 | 0.5 | 3.7 | 9.8 | 27.1 |
| Transportation | -15.0 | 20.0 | -17.7 | 2.5 | 7.8 | 12.8 | 57.4 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -1.4 | -1.7 | 3.0 | -0.3 | 1.9 | 8.6 | 18.0 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -10.6 | 7.1 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 13.2 | 36.3 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 0.2 | -4.8 | 6.7 | -0.7 | -0.5 | 10.3 | 17.1 |
| Shipments | 0.4 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 9.6 | 11.4 |
| Inventories | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 10.3 | 9.5 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.6 | 0.7 | -0.0 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 10.3 | 9.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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