Global| Feb 28 2012U.S. Durable Goods Orders Retrace Earlier Gain
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods slumped 4.0% last month after a revised 3.2% December increase, originally reported as 3.0%. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.0% fall. However, the latest decline ran counter to the ISM orders [...]
New orders for durable goods slumped 4.0% last month after a revised 3.2% December increase, originally reported as 3.0%. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.0% fall. However, the latest decline ran counter to the ISM orders series which rose last month to its highest since last April.
A 6.1% decline (+15.2% y/y) in transportation orders paced last month's total decline as non-defense aircraft & parts orders fell 19.0% (+123.3% y/y). Outside of the transportation sector orders also were weak and fell 3.2% (+5.7% y/y). Machinery bookings slumped 10.4% (+4.4% y/y), primary metals orders fell 6.7% (+19.1% y/y) and orders for electrical equipment dropped 1.9% (+4.5% y/y). These declines were offset by a 0.8% rise (-4.0% y/y) in computers & electronic equipment.
Shipments of durable goods ticked up 0.4% (8.9% y/y) last month. However, less the transportation sector shipments fell 1.1% (+8.3% y/y) due mostly to lower machinery shipments. Inventories rose another 0.7% (10.4% y/y) led by a 2.8% rise (6.2% y/y) in electrical equipment. Unfilled orders increased 0.5% (9.4% y/y) paced by a 0.5% gain (24.3% y/y) in machinery.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification (%) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orders | -4.0 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 8.1 | 10.1 | 15.4 | -27.3 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -6.3 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 20.0 | 14.5 | 28.0 | -31.0 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -4.5 | 3.4 | -1.5 | 5.9 | 10.2 | 17.2 | -20.4 |
| Shipments | 0.4 | 1.9 | -0.2 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 6.2 | -20.4 |
| Inventories | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 10.4 | 10.7 | 9.9 | -9.0 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 3.9 | -15.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
