Global| Mar 28 2012U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rebound
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods rebounded 2.2% during February following a 3.6% January slump, originally reported as -4.0%. Consensus expectations had been for a 2.7% rise. The increase was roughly consistent with the ISM orders figure [...]
New orders for durable goods rebounded 2.2% during February following a 3.6% January slump, originally reported as -4.0%. Consensus expectations had been for a 2.7% rise. The increase was roughly consistent with the ISM orders figure of 54.9 in February.
Transportation orders rebounded 3.9% (23.7% y/y) as non-defense aircraft & parts orders increased 6.0% (72.9% y/y) after a 17.2% January drop. Outside of the transportation sector orders rose 1.6% (8.5% y/y) following a 3.0% January decline. New orders for machinery rebounded 5.7% (13.3% y/y) after a 9.1% decline, primary metals orders rose 1.3% (29.5% y/y) after an 8.2% drop but orders for electrical equipment declined another 2.5% (-0.9% y/y), the fourth decline in the last five months. Orders for computers & electronic equipment rose 2.7% (-0.9% y/y) led by an 11.2% rise (4.1% y/y) in communication equipment.
Growth in investment spending continued strong as nondefense capital orders increased 1.5% (17.7% y/y) following a 5.2% January drop. Excluding aircraft, orders rose 1.2% (8.4% y/y) after a 3.7% January decline. Defense capital goods orders rebounded during the last two months trimming the y/y change to -6.0% from its worst of -43.1%.
Shipments of durable goods slipped 0.4% (+8.2% y/y) last month. However, less the transportation sector shipments ticked up 0.3% (8.4% y/y) led by a 2.3% recovery (11.3% y/y) in machinery shipments. Durable goods inventories increased another 0.4% (9.5% y/y) paced by a 1.3% rise (10.2% y/y) in primary metals. Unfilled orders increased 1.3% (10.5% y/y) led by a 1.8% gain (25.2% y/y) in machinery.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification (%) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orders | 2.2 | -3.6 | 3.3 | 12.2 | 10.1 | 15.4 | -27.3 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 1.5 | -5.2 | 6.9 | 18.7 | 14.5 | 28.0 | -31.0 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 1.2 | -3.7 | 3.5 | 8.4 | 10.2 | 17.2 | -20.4 |
| Shipments | -0.4 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 6.2 | -20.4 |
| Inventories | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 9.5 | 10.7 | 9.9 | -9.0 |
| Unfilled Orders | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 3.9 | -15.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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