Global| Oct 27 2020U.S. Durable Goods Orders Post Surprising Increase in September
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• The factory sector continues to strengthen. • Business investment leads the improvement. • Shipments rise modestly; orders backlogs ease. Manufacturers' orders for durable goods strengthened 1.9% (-1.9% y/y) during September [...]
• The factory sector continues to strengthen.
• Business investment leads the improvement.
• Shipments rise modestly; orders backlogs ease.
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods strengthened 1.9% (-1.9% y/y) during September following an unrevised 0.4% August gain. A 0.3% gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. New orders have risen 41.5% since the recession low in April.
Business investment also has firmed. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 1.0% (4.5% y/y), the fifth consecutive month of strong increase. Orders have risen 12.1% during the last five months.
Orders for transportation equipment rose 4.1% (-8.7% y/y) led by a surge in aircraft & parts bookings. Motor vehicles & parts orders gained 1.5% (5.2% y/y). Primary metals orders strengthened 4.0% (-1.6% y/y) while fabricated metals orders rose 1.2% (-1.8% y/y). Computer electronic product orders improved 0.6% (5.7% y/y). Offsetting these gains, orders for electrical equipment & appliances declined 2.0% (-4.1% y/y) and machinery orders slipped 0.3% (-2.5% y/y).
Shipments of core capital goods rose 0.3% (2.5% y/y) to the highest level since November 2013. Total shipments edged 0.3% higher (-0.6% y/y). Shipments of transportation products improved 0.5% (-2.4% y/y). Shipments excluding transportation rose 0.2% (0.3% y/y). Machinery shipments fell 1.1% (-3.6% y/y) while electrical equipment & appliance shipments fell 1.2% (-4.9% y/y).
Unfilled orders for durable goods slipped 0.2% (-6.3% y/y). Excluding transportation, they rose 0.7% (0.9% y/y).
Inventories of durable goods rebounded 0.4% (0.7% y/y) following three straight months of decline. Excluding transportation, inventories rose 0.2% (-3.0% y/y) after falling for five consecutive months.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | 1.9 | 0.4 | 11.8 | -1.9 | -1.5 | 7.1 | 5.0 |
| Transportation | 4.1 | -0.9 | 35.3 | -8.7 | -4.8 | 9.2 | 4.7 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.8 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 5.9 | 5.1 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods Excl. Aircraft | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 4.6 | 4.1 |
| Shipments | 0.3 | -0.3 | 7.6 | -0.6 | 0.8 | 6.6 | 2.6 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods Excl. Aircraft | 0.3 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 1.1 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.2 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -6.3 | -1.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 |
| Inventories | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.8 | 0.7 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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