Global| Apr 24 2014U.S. Durable Goods Orders Post Another Solid Advance
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The manufacturing sector is recovering well following a rough winter. New orders for durable goods gained 2.6% (9.1% y/y) last month following a little-revised 2.1% February rise. The increase beat expectations for a 1.9% rise in the [...]
The manufacturing sector is recovering well following a rough winter. New orders for durable goods gained 2.6% (9.1% y/y) last month following a little-revised 2.1% February rise. The increase beat expectations for a 1.9% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. New orders for transportation equipment again paced the monthly increase with a 4.0% jump (19.0% y/y) that added to February's 6.7% rise. It reflected an 8.6% recovery (54.9% y/y) in nondefense aircraft & parts orders following a 12.5% drop. Motor vehicle & parts bookings ticked 0.4% higher (4.5% y/y) which followed a 4.3% advance.
Outside of the transportation sector new orders were firm, posting a 2.0% rise (5.1% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick. Orders for computers & electronic products led the rise with a 5.7% increase (8.9% y/y), paced by a 7.9% gain (14.3% y/y) in communications equipment. Electrical equipment orders improved 3.5% (2.0% y/y) following declines during the prior two months. Fabricated metals orders increased 2.2% (-1.8% y/y) and primary metals orders rose 2.0% (6.5% y/y). Machinery bookings edged 0.5% higher (6.7% y/y), also following declines during the prior two months. Nondefense capital goods orders jumped 7.1% (9.1% y/y) after three months of sharp decline. Orders excluding aircraft gained 2.2% (3.5% y/y) and recovered February's 1.1% drop.
Shipments of durable goods added 1.1% (3.6% y/y) to a like rise in February. Shipments excluding the transportation sector gained 0.9% (3.5% y/y) following a 0.6% increase. Unfilled orders improved 0.6% (7.5% y/y) after a 0.2% gain, while order backlogs outside of the transportation sector rose 0.5% (6.0% y/y). Inventories of durable goods improved 0.5% (4.7% y/y) after February's 0.5% rise. Inventories outside the transportation sector increased 0.4% (2.4% y/y), roughly the same as in the prior month.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Mar | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | 2.6 | 2.1 | -1.4 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 11.0 |
| Transportation | 4.0 | 6.7 | -6.2 | 19.0 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 14.9 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 2.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 9.5 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 7.1 | -2.8 | -5.3 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 15.3 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 2.2 | -1.1 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 11.6 |
| Shipments | 1.1 | 1.0 | -0.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 9.4 |
| Inventories | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 10.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 10.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
