Global| Apr 27 2005U.S. Durable Goods Orders Off Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Orders received by U.S. manufacturers of durable goods dropped 2.8% last month following a revised 0.2% dip in February. It was the third consecutive monthly decline in new orders. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.3% rise. [...]
Orders received by U.S. manufacturers of durable goods dropped 2.8% last month following a revised 0.2% dip in February. It was the third consecutive monthly decline in new orders. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.3% rise.
Lower orders for transportation equipment, down 7.8% (-15.3% y/y), reflected steep declines in orders for both civilian (-22.7% m/m, -15.3% y/y) and defense (-35.0% m/m, -23.0% y/y) aircraft. The third consecutive decline motor vehicle & parts orders (-11.0% y/y) also contributed. Less transportation durable orders fell 1.0% (+3.9% y/y).
Orders for non-defense capital goods fell 6.2%. Less aircraft, the 4.7% decline reflected a 3.4% (+0.6% y/y) drop in orders for electrical equipment and a 7.6% drop in orders for machinery (+0.5% y/y). Computer & electronic product orders rose 2.2% (7.9% y/y).
Shipments of durables slipped 0.2% (+3.5% y/y) while durable inventories rose 0.4% (9.6% y/y). That rise caused the I/S ratio to increase to its highest level since late 2003.
Unfilled orders fell 0.5% (+6.6% y/y) and the ratio of backlogs to shipments gave back some of prior month's sharp increase.
| NAICS Classification | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Goods Orders | -2.8% | -0.2% | -1.7% | 10.8% | 2.6% | -1.7% |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -6.2% | -0.7% | 1.1% | 13.7% | 5.6% | -7.2% |
| Excluding Aircraft | -4.7% | -2.5% | 1.6% | 11.7% | 6.6% | -7.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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