Global| Jan 27 2011U.S. Durable Goods Orders Lower Due To Aircraft
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
There's hardly a more volatile component of the durable goods orders report than aircraft & parts. Last month's orders halved, pulling overall transportation orders down 12.8%. The declined owed to an evaporation of orders for [...]
There's hardly a more volatile component of the durable goods orders report
than aircraft & parts. Last month's orders halved, pulling overall
transportation orders down 12.8%. The declined owed to an evaporation of orders
for commercial aircraft. Outside of this volatility in transportation, durable
goods orders inched up 0.5% after a strong 4.5% November rise which was revised
up sharply from 2.4%. For all of last year total durable goods orders rose
13.5%.
During last month, primary metals orders fell back 4.7% (+18.9% y/y) after their November surge. Computer orders also fell 1.2% (+10.4% y/y) and electrical equipment orders slipped 0.1% (+21.7% y/y) following an 8.6% November surge. Mitigating these declines was a 10.6% jump (23.5% y/y) in machinery orders.
Shipments of durable goods were more stable last month and increased 1.4% (4.1%) led by a 6.7% jump (13.7% y/y) in machinery. For the year shipments rose 7.2% following sharp declines both in 2008 and 2009. Not only have higher orders & shipments been powering activity in the factory sector but there's been a turn toward inventory accumulation since February. Inventories accumulated another 0.7% (9.0% y/y) in December following a 0.9% November increase. For all of last year inventories rose 9.0% after a 12.8% decline in 2009. Finishing the durables report was a modest 3.7% rise in unfilled orders last year after an 11.1% 2009 decline.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| NAICS Classification (%) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Goods Orders | -2.5 | -0.1 | -3.1 | 6.9 | 13.5 | -20.7 | -9.0 |
| Excluding Transportation | 0.5 | 4.5 | -2.0 | 11.5 | 13.6 | -18.4 | -2.5 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -6.3 | -8.1 | -3.8 | 10.0 | 21.6 | -26.8 | -12.6 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 1.4 | 3.1 | -3.2 | 15.5 | 16.6 | -19.8 | -4.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
